U.S.-China trade tensions have waxed and waned for decades but have remained persistently high since 2017. In this report, the authors assess the effectiveness of recent, more-restrictive U.S. economic policies regarding China. They also provide recommendations on how to improve the United States’ ability to defend its economic interests and enhance the likelihood of the Chinese government adopting fairer trade practices.
Authors
Crane, Keith, Stark, Alexandra, Heath, Timothy R., Zheng, Cindy
- Division
- RAND National Security Research Division International Security and Defense Policy Program
- Pages
- 116
- Published in
- United States
- RAND Identifier
- RR-A3055-1
- RAND Type
- report
- Rights
- RAND Corporation
- Series
- Research Reports
- Source
- https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3055-1.html
Table of Contents
- The Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Policies Regarding China Pursued from 2017 to 2024 1
- About This Report 3
- RAND National Security Research Division 3
- Acknowledgments 3
- Summary 5
- Recommendations 6
- Trade 6
- Controls on Technology 6
- Economic Diplomacy 7
- Foreign Investment 7
- Industry 7
- Diversification of Supply Chains 8
- Contents 9
- Figures and Tables 11
- Figures 11
- Tables 11
- Introduction 13
- Background Developments in U.S.-China Economic Relations 14
- Goals of U.S. Economic Measures Regarding China 17
- Approach and Methodology 20
- Report Outline 21
- Effectiveness of U.S. Policies to Achieve Fairer Trade with China 23
- Tariffs 23
- Changes in Trade Flows Following the Increases in Tariffs 23
- Changes in U.S. Exports to China 25
- Changes in the Balance of Trade 26
- Changes in the Composition of Imports from China 27
- Economic Costs of the Tariffs 28
- Costs to China 29
- Costs to the United States 29
- Proposed Changes to International Trade Rules and Norms 31
- Industrial Policies 34
- Conclusion 34
- Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Policies to Defend U.S. Interests 37
- Restrictions on Chinas Direct Foreign Investment in the United States 37
- The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act 38
- Changes in Foreign Direct Investment Flows Between China and the United States 39
- Case Studies of Five Key Products and Materials 39
- Case Study 1 Polysilicon 40
- Case Study 2 Lithium and Lithium-Ion Batteries 45
- Case Study 3 Graphite 50
- Case Study 4 Rare Earth Minerals 55
- Case Study 5 Advanced Semiconductors 60
- Conclusion 66
- Chinas Response 69
- Chinas Development Goals 69
- A Government-Led Chinese Model 71
- Initiatives to Dominate Foreign Markets 72
- Official Response Manage Tensions Respond Tit for Tat 74
- Chinas Counter to U.S. Policies 76
- Self-Reliance 77
- Chinese Commentators Admit Damage but Argue the United States Is Suffering Worse 78
- Conclusion 80
- Overall Assessment and Recommendations 81
- Trade and Investment 81
- Controls on Technology 82
- Conclusion 83
- Recommendations 84
- Trade 84
- Controls on Technology 85
- Economic Diplomacy 86
- Foreign Investment 87
- Industry 87
- Diversification of Supply Chains 87
- Comparison of U.S. and Chinese Statistics on Bilateral Trade and Investment 89
- Statistics on Trade 89
- Statistics on Foreign Direct Investment 90
- Timeline of U.S. Economic Measures Related to Competition with China 93
- Timeline of Chinese Economic Policy Changes Following New U.S. Economic Policy Measures vis-à-vis China 97
- Abbreviations 99
- References 101
