SUERF Policy Brief Impact of the US Presidential Race on the German

This policy brief focuses on how professional forecasters from Germany assess the outcome of the US presidential election, its implications for the German economy and the measures they believe could help safeguard the German economy from potential adverse effects of the new president’s policies. [...] How Would the Outcome of the US Presidential Race Affect the German Economy? In the September wave of the survey, we asked FMT respondents to forecast annual German GDP growth and inflation rates conditional on the outcome of the presidential election. [...] Average expected GDP growth and inflation in Germany conditional on the election of Kamala Harris (blue) or Donald Trump (red) How do Experts Rate the Political Skills of the US Presidential Candidates? To better understand the differences in predicted GDP growth, we asked the respondents in the September wave to indicate whether a series of economic, political or monetary policy outcomes were mor. [...] The wide heterogeneity of the measures proposed by the FMT participants suggests that German experts are divided on the best approach to safeguarding the German economy. [...] Nevertheless, the election winner does not have a free pass to implement their policies, as it remains unclear whether the winner will secure a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and European policymakers may respond with measures to safeguard the European economy from potential shocks originating in the US.