We simulate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the long-term federal fiscal outlook. This paper introduces a framework for how AI will affect fiscal budgets through four primary channels: mortality rates and the size of the population, the price of health care services, demands for health care services, and aggregate productivity. Using this framework, we show that the nature of the AI shock is critical, as the impact of the shock on annual budget deficits could range from an increase of 1 percent of GDP to a decrease of 1.5 percent of GDP by 2044, with the latter reducing annual budget deficits in 2044 by roughly one fifth.
Authors
- Acknowledgements and disclosures
- The views here represent those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve system.The Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published online here. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.We thank Liam Marshall for outstanding research assistance. We also thank Emilia Javorsky for a helpful discussion at the Brookings Artificial Intelligence Author's Conference, and other participants in the Brookings Artificial Intelligence Author's Conference for helpful comments and feedback. All errors or omissions are our own.
- Pages
- 31
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- The fiscal frontier Projecting AIs long-term impact on the US fiscal outlook 1
- ππππ π π π π ππ 17
- ππππ ππππ 17
- ππ ππ π»π» ππ 17
- ππ ππ 17
- πΊπΊ ππππππ ππππ π₯π₯ππ ππ ππ ππ ππ 1 ππ ππ ππππππ πΊπΊ ππ π΅π΅ ππππ π₯π₯ππ ππ ππ ππ ππ 1 ππ ππ π΅π΅ π΅π΅ 19
- Longevity 23
- Change in Mortality Rates 23
- Change in Corporate Tax Revenue 23
- Change in Income Tax Revenue 23
- Change in Medicare Utilization All Parts 23
- Change in Medicare Price All Parts 23
- Scenario 1 -0.2 0 0 0 0 2 -0.2 0.15 0.33 -0.005 -0.005 3 -0.3 0.15 0.33 -0.01 -0.01 4 -0.3 0.15 0.33 0.01 -0.01 23
- Productivity Health Care Utilization and Pricing 23
