Although deaths and economic losses due to extreme heat are rising globally, heatwaves remain a "hidden hazard" whose impacts are underrecognized due to measurement and valuation challenges. Cities in India are developing Heat Action Plans that combine physical cooling measures (such as urban greening and reflective roofs) with public health measures (such as heat-health early warning systems). However, there is a key knowledge gap on the relative efficacy of these actions. To inform debate on how scarce public funds could most efficiently be allocated to reduce deaths and productivity loss due to extreme heat, this paper develops spatially explicit heat risk maps for Lucknow, Chennai, and Surat under climate scenarios; models future health and economic losses under a “no intervention” scenario; and estimates the costs and benefits of alternative sets of heat mitigation actions. The modeling suggests that by 2050, the number of heat-related deaths could rise by one-third for the case study cities, while labor productivity losses could affect between 2 and 4 percent of their economic output. Among the interventions typically considered in city Heat Action Plans, benefit-to-cost ratios are favorable but vary significantly. Urban greening investments more than cover their costs based on the health and labor productivity benefits of the heat stress reduction they yield (benefit-cost ratio of 3:1). However, heat-health early warning systems offer the greatest harm reduction per dollar invested (benefit-cost ratios exceeding 50:1), suggesting that they are “low-hanging fruit” whose wider implementation across Indian and global cities should be prioritized.
Authors
Jones, Nicholas, Tiwari, Asmita, Kikutake, Natsuko, Takacs, Sacha, Souverijns, Niels
- Citation
- “ Jones, Nicholas ; Tiwari, Asmita ; Kikutake, Natsuko ; Takacs, Sacha ; Souverijns, Niels . 2024 . Prioritizing Heat Mitigation Actions in Indian Cities: A Cost-Benefit Analysis under Climate Change Scenarios . Policy Research Working Paper; 10960 . © Washington, DC: World Bank . http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42350 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO . ”
- Collection(s)
- Policy Research Working Papers
- DOI
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10960
- Identifier externaldocumentum
- 34412634
- Identifier internaldocumentum
- 34412634
- Pages
- 31
- Published in
- United States of America
- Region country
- India
- RelationisPartofseries
- Policy Research Working Paper; 10960
- Report
- WPS10960
- Rights
- CC BY 3.0 IGO
- Rights Holder
- World Bank
- Rights URI
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
- UNIT
- Urban SAR 1 (ISAU1)
- URI
- https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42350
- date disclosure
- 2024-10-31
- region administrative
- South Asia
- theme
- Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery,Economic Policy,Green Growth,Rural Development,Economic Growth and Planning,Environment and Natural Resource Management,Land Administration and Management,Climate change,Urban and Rural Development,Adaptation,Geospatial Services,Urban Development
Files
Table of Contents
- Nicholas Jones Asmita Tiwari 1
- Natsuko Kikutake 1
- Sacha Takacs 1
- Niels Souverijns 1
- 1. Introduction 4
- Table 1 City heat action Intervention packages 6
- 2. Methods 2.1 Heat hazard for three Indian cities under climate scenarios up to 2050 6
- 2.2 Heat impacts on health and labor productivity under the no intervention scenario 8
- 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 1 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅 𝑝𝑝𝑚𝑚𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑝𝑝 8
- 2.3 Heat mitigation interventions Definition and costing 11
- 2.4 Benefits of intervention options 13
- Working hours shift Cool roofs 14
- 3. Results 15
- Health impacts 16
- Labor productivity impacts 17
- Urban greening. Working hours shift. Early warning systems. 18
- Cool roofs. 19
- 4. Discussion 19
- 5. Conclusion 21
- References 22
- NIOSH criteria for a recommended standard occupational exposure to heat and hot environments Urban Climate 3 22
- Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health 28 23
- Remote Sensing 10 24
- Solar Energy Environmental health 12 25
- Supplementary Figures 26
