‘What if?’ is a question that some foresight methodologies use as a way to think through the impact of future scenarios: ‘What if that happened?’ – What if war broke out right in the heart of Europe? What if extreme climate events completely disrupted the European economy? What if political radicalisation led to civil war and endangered the European project? What if, in extremists’ hands, artificial intelligence increased the power to disrupt and destroy western democracies? What if trade wars suddenly cut off Europe’s access to supplies?This Foresight Brief is based on a factual observation: security issues are cropping up across European institutions’ policy agendas, reflecting an increasingly challenging and uncertain environment. These issues have, of course, taken on a military aspect as a result of the war in Ukraine, but they are also connected to other areas, including climate, commerce, technology and health. This Brief postulates that the ‘Security Union’, as the European Union (EU) institutions have dubbed it, will be the number one priority of the new European Commission and the new European Parliament (2024-2029). This brings two questions to mind, namely what are the likely implications of this kind of political priority for the EU’s social and climate agenda? And what would be the likely place and role of trade union organisations in a security-conscious or even security-driven Europe? These are the questions discussed in this Brief.
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- CITE THIS PAGE
- https://www.etui.org/cite-page/34966
- ISSN
- 2507-1548
- ISSN PDF
- 2565-6902
- Pages
- 40
- Published in
- Belgium
Table of Contents
- Introduction 2
- 1. A series of events that took the EU out of its comfort zone 3
- 1.1 The financial banking and euro crisis 3
- 1.2 The western model in crisis 4
- 1.3 Regional crises political violence and terrorism 5
- 1.4 Migration crises 5
- 1.5 Brexit and the rise of extremists 5
- 1.6 An age of fierce competition 6
- 1.7 Pandemic and war 6
- 1.8 Climate crisis 7
- 1.9 Digitalisation of the economy and fears of job losses 8
- 1.10 In sum a Europe under strain 8
- Insecurity in the EU 9
- 2. European responses a security agenda 9
- 2.1 Responses to European geopolitical vulnerabilities 10
- 2.2 Responses to economic and trade vulnerabilities 12
- 2.3 Response to climate vulnerabilities and emergencies 14
- 2.4 Responses to technological vulnerabilities 15
- 2.5 Responses to energy vulnerabilities 17
- 2.6 Responses to vulnerabilities in various emergency situations 18
- 2.7 In sum a new European security agenda in the making 18
- EU response a European security agenda 19
- 3. Assessing key social risks 20
- 3.1 Changing political priorities 20
- 3.2 The risks to democracy 21
- 3.3 New social and environmental issues 23
- 3.4 Dealing with major emergencies 25
- 3.5 War economy 26
- What if Worst-case scenarios 27
- 4. Rethinking the role of social actors 30
- 4.1 Organising solidarity and mobilisation 30
- 4.2 Collective bargaining and social dialogue 31
- 4.3 Labour diplomacy and trade union diplomacy 32
- 4.4 Mobilising workers against the dissemination of hatred 34
- Conclusion 35
- References 36
