OSW Commentary - Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine - The Ukrainian offensive and the stability of supplies

However, the rising security risks along this route in recent weeks have fuelled questions about the future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, as well as the potential impact of the forthcoming changes on the stability of supplies. [...] The future of Russian gas shipments through Ukrainian territory and the use of Ukrainian infrastructure depends on the developments on the battlefront and, perhaps to an even greater extent, the interests and actions of the countries involved. [...] The future of transit: the scenarios Given the differing interests of the parties regarding the future of gas transit through Ukrainian ter- ritory amidst ongoing hostilities, it is currently difficult to predict with certainty how Ukraine’s gas pipelines will be utilised in the future. [...] The prospects for the transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine Since June 2024, there have been discussions on the possibility of transporting gas from Azerbaijan through Ukrainian pipelines after the expiration of the Ukrainian-Russian transit agreement. [...] The initia- tive follows a series of EU-Azerbaijani declarations of intent and preliminary agreements, including a 2022 memorandum of understanding with the European Commission, in which Azerbaijan pledged to increase its gas supplies to 20 bcm per year.8 At the same time, the concept of Azerbaijani gas transiting through Ukraine to the EU remains rather vague for the time being.