OSW Commentary - The architects of ‘America First’ and the potential consequences of a Trump victory for European security

The document outlines a plan for Following Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, the a comprehensive overhaul of the US witnessed a new phenomenon: the emergence state, with the primary goal ap- of several conservative organisations aiming to pearing to be the enhancement of shape the future Republican political agenda. [...] This aligns with the so-called unitary executive theory,2 which posits that the current involvement of independent federal agencies in shaping regulations and the protections preventing the dismissals of mid-level officials violate the constitutional provision stating that the executive power is vested in the president. [...] Lobbyists and wealthy donors acknowledged the organisation’s close per- sonal ties to Trump and his involvement in its development (a fundraiser for the AFPI was held at the former president’s estate in Florida).9 The CRA opposes further US These proposals put forward by the AFPI and the support for Ukraine and actively CRA are based on the conviction that Ukraine can- lobbied to block the most re. [...] It supports the initiation of peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, asserting that, following the failure of the 2023 coun- teroffensive, Ukraine has no realistic path to victory.11 According to the CRA, involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not in the US interest, with Russia’s repeated failures in this war showing that it is incapable of achieving dominance in Europe. [...] The AFPI views a Russian invasion of a NATO country as unlikely, arguing that the Kremlin lacks both the resources and intent for such an invasion.15 The organisation also cautions against prolonging the war and the US supporting Ukraine’s plans to strike targets deep within Russia, as this could provoke Putin to consider a nuclear strike.