Paralleling the large literature on the “China shock” in the US (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013), we henceforth refer to these developments as the “Eastern shock.” We begin by documenting the adverse labour market consequences of exposure to the Eastern shock and then explore the role of retraining as a margin of adjustment for workers. [...] In order to replicate these causal effects in the model, we set the ÂE in Theorem 2 equal to the shocks calibrated above and set Âis = 1 for all other countries and sectors.19 We then solve the equations in Theorem 2 to obtain counterfactual values for trade flows and the distributions of earnings, employment and retraining decisions across occupations and sectors in 2007. [...] Given β, the retraining elasticity γ then determines the sen- sitivity of the decision to retrain to labour market shocks and so is pinned down by the response of retraining rates to import exposure reported in the third row of Table 6. [...] The employment elas- ticity κ determines the substitutability of employment versus non-employment and so determines the scale of the employment responses reported in the first two rows of Table 6. [...] 6.2 Retraining and the Eastern Shock How did the option of retraining change the employment and welfare effects of the Eastern shock on Germany? We answer this question with the following experiment.
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Table of Contents
- IFS WP Cover.pdf 1
- WP202028-A-second-chance-Labor-market-returns-to-adult-education-using-school-reforms 1
- WP202027-Potential-consequences-of-post-Brexit-trade-barriers-for-earnings-inequality-in-the-UK 1
- WP201902-Survival-pessimism-and-the-demand-for-annuities 1
- WP front cover 1
- odeaSturrockRestatResubmission.pdf -1
- Introduction 1
- Data 1
- Evaluating the content of subjective reports 1
- Assessing the accuracy of subjective expectations of survival 1
- Comparing reports to actual mortality data 1
- Constructing subjective survival curves 1
- Subjective survival expectations and annuitization 1
- Model 1
- Results 1
- Conclusion 1
- Details of further analysis and tests from Section 2 1
- Analysis of ``50%" answers 1
- Correlation of subjective reports with risk factors, new information, subsequent mortality and holdings of life insurance 1
- Robustness of results from Section 4.2 1
- Robustness of main results to using ONS life tables without rescaling 1
- Definition of model including utility from housing consumption 1
- Further robustness of main results 1
- Computational Appendix 1
- Recursive Form of the Model 1
- Periods after annuitization decision has been made 1
- Initial Period 1
- Computational Implementation 1
- returning_to_education_2020_8_DP.pdf -1
- Introduction 1
- Norwegian Register Data and Education in Norway 1
- Norwegian Register Data 1
- The Norwegian Education System 1
- Descriptive Evidence on Returning to Education and Lifetime Earnings 1
- Who returns to education and at what ages? 1
- What qualifications do individuals return to? 1
- Years of Education and University Education 1
- Describing the Lifetime Earnings of Those Who Return to Education 1
- Final Year of Upper Secondary Education 1
- Late Completion of Higher Education 1
- Returning to education and labor market outcomes 1
- Defining the counterfactual 1
- Empirical Specification 1
- Defining the sample 1
- Accounting for comparability of different birth cohorts 1
- Controlling for differences in local economic conditions 1
- The Estimated Impact of Educational Reforms on Education and Labor Market Outcomes 1
- Reducing the Gender Earnings Gap 1
- The Channels From Later Life Education to Labor Market Outcomes 1
- The impact on later life education, earnings and employment 1
- Distribution of Occupations in +14 1
- The Estimated Impact of Educational Reforms on Fertility 1
- The impact of returning to education on women’s earnings and employment 1
- Employment Impacts by Pre-Reform Labor Market Attachment 1
- Employment Impacts by Pre-Reform Number of Children 1
- Heterogeneity and Robustness of Results 1
- Completion of post-secondary education 1
- Heterogeneity in Returning to Education 1
- Reduced-Form Impacts on Labor Market Outcomes for Men 1
- Robustness to Varying 1
- Comparing to Older Base Ages 1
- Conclusion 1
- Summary Statistics By Gender and Age Completed High School 1
- Adolescent Fertility Across OECD Founding Member States & Finland 1
- Returning to University Education 1
- Describing Lifetime Earnings - Academic/Vocational and by Gender 1
- Academic 1
- Vocational 1
- Distribution of Labor Earnings 1
- Estimated Propensity Scores 1
- Baseline Results for Men—Education 1
- The cumulative effect on earnings 1
- The Correlation Between Employment and Children 1
- Completion of Higher Education 1
- Occupations 1
- Importance of Additional Factors 1
- Baseline Results for Men—Labor Market Outcomes 1
- Robustness 1
- Varying Delta 1
- Using Older Birth Cohorts 1
- LndnLockdown_260820.pdf -1
- Introduction 1
- Timing of Lockdown 1
- Domestic Violence Crimes Recorded by the London MPS 1
- Empirical Model and Findings 1
- Using Google Search Data 1
- A Framework 1
- Help-Seeking Behavior Across Regimes 1
- Relating Internet Searches to Police Reports 1
- Data and Algorithm 1
- Findings 1
- Robustness 1
- Conclusions 1
- MPS Domestic Violence Crime Data 1
- Weather Data 1
- Conwell_Finlay_Williams_Schooled_by_Trade.pdf 2
- Introduction 3
- Retraining in Germany 5
- Data 5
- Institutional Context 6
- Descriptive Statistics 7
- Retraining, Import Competition, and the Eastern Shock 9
- Measuring Exposure to the Eastern Shock 9
- Labour Market Effects of Eastern Import Exposure 10
- Eastern Import Exposure and Retraining 11
- A Theory of Trade and Retraining 13
- Labour Supply and Retraining in the Domestic Economy 13
- Labour Supply in Other Countries 16
- International Trade 16
- Equilibrium 18
- Discussion 18
- Calibration 21
- Hat Algebra 21
- Calibration Strategy 24
- Results 26
- Counterfactuals 26
- The Effects of the Eastern Shock 26
- Retraining and the Eastern Shock 27
- Retraining and the Gains from Trade 30
- Conclusion 31
- Data Appendix 35
- German Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies (SIAB) 35
- General Cleaning and Preparation 35
- Sector and Occupation Aggregates 35
- Worker Sample 36
- Retraining Episode Sample 36
- Quarterly Panel 36
- UN Comtrade Database 37
- Variable Definitions 37
- Retraining Rates 37
- Labor Market Outcomes 37
- Controls 38
- Trade Exposure 38
- Sectoral and Occupation Aggregates for Calibration 39
- Theory Appendix 40
- Proof of Theorem 1 40
- Derivation of Analytical Results 41
- Proof of Theorem 2 43
