A guide to anticipation: - Working Paper on Tools and Methods of Horizon Scanning and Foresight

As part of the foresight exercise, the ISC and UNEP have also identified a need to reflect on the field of foresight and horizon scanning itself, and its multiple approaches, tools and practices through reviewing the landscape of available tools and methods developed over the past decades. [...] Following a literature review, a series of three short essays delve deeper into specific areas of foresight, namely: The wealth of indigenous and local community approaches to foresight and futures thinking so often underrepresented in academic literature and the practice of international organizations; The integration of complexity and uncertainty in scenario planning; and The role of foresight i. [...] Horizon scanning and foresight activities involve exploring trends and emerging issues to be able to identify future challenges, opportunities and threats, disrupting the focus on immediate concerns and debates in the present to recognize and respond to future challenges and opportunities (Sutherland et al., 2009; Cook et al., 2014; Cuhls, 2020). [...] This section of the Working Paper presents an analysis of the methods and tools for horizon scanning and foresight activities, including the context of their applications and strengths and limitations. [...] Horizon scanning search string Foresight search strings Horizon scan* Foresight Horizon scan* AND foresight Foresight AND science policy Horizon scan* AND science policy Foresight AND social-ecological Horizon scan* AND social-ecological Foresight AND biodiversity Horizon scan* AND biodiversity Foresight AND Indigenous Horizon scan* AND Indigenous Foresight AND Traditional Knowledge Horizon scan*.