Isabel Stockton - Tax and treat – but @TheIFS - ghosts lurking?

Tax and treat – but ghosts lurking? 31 October 2024 Autumn Budget 2024: IFS analysis Isabel Stockton Tax and treat – but @TheIFS ghosts lurking? Taxes rising to a record high Tax revenues: out-turn and official forecasts 39 October 2024 1948 record +1pp 37 March 2024 35 33 31 Out-turn 29 27 Source: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (March 2024, October 2024) Tax and Treat? National accounts taxes. [...] Source: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (October 2024) Tax and Treat? Debt interest spending 5 Policy adds £10 billion in 2028–29 Half of this is indirect via inflation and interest rates 4 Rising market expectations for Bank October 2024 Rate might add £3 billion between forecast closing and statement 3 March 2024 2 March 2022 Out-turn March 2020 1 0 Notes: Central government debt interest net of. [...] Source: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (October 2024) Tax and Treat? £ billion Old-school debt still forecast to stabilise by 2030 100% 98% £6 96% billion 94% 92% 90% March forecast 88% Denominator effect from larger cash- terms economy Non-borrowing changes in debt 86% Other underlying changes 84% Day-to-day spending and tax changes 82% Investment changes (=October forecast) 80% Notes: Spending. [...] ‘Underlying’ changes include forecast changes, non-borrowing changes to debt, and the denominator effect from a much larger cash economy. [...] Source: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (October 2024) Tax and Treat? Per cent of national income 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 Tax and treat – but ghosts lurking? Taxes rising to a record high Size of state to stay (even more) elevated Near-term loosening, medium-term restraint Changes to the borrowing forecast Debt interest spending Despite narrow margins on fiscal targ.