Unlocking Transport Connectivity in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Table of Contents

• Unlocking Transport Connectivity in the Caucasus and Central Asia 2
• Contents 4
• Tables Figures and Boxes 6
• Contributors 9
• Acknowledgments 11
• Executive Summary 12
• Part I CAREC Transport Corridor Development 12
• Part II Measuring the Impact of CAREC Transport Corridors 14
• Foreword 18
• Introduction Forging Transport 20
• Connectivity and Regional Economic Integration in the Caucasus and Central Asia 20
• 1 Motivation From Geopolitical Turbulence to 20
• Infrastructural Resilience in the Middle Corridor 20
• 2 Regionally Specific Infrastructural and 22
• Coordination Barriers in the Middle Corridor 22
• 3 Accelerating Infrastructural Development 30
• 4 The Way Forward 33
• References 34
• CAREC Transport 36
• Corridor Development 36
• Rail Transport Corridors in the 38
• CAREC Region Long-Term 38
• Supply Chain Resilience and Short-Term Shocks 38
• 1.1 Introduction 38
• 1.2 Establishment and Development 40
• 1.3 Promoting Alternatives to the Main Lines 44
• 1.4 The Russian Invasion of Ukraine 46
• 1.5 Costs and Benefits to CAREC Members 50
• 1.6 Conclusions 52
• References 53
• Appendix 1 Measuring Traffic Along 56
• Diversifying Trade Flows and 58
• Transport Routes in the CAREC Region Amid External Shocks 58
• 2.1 Introduction 58
• 2.2 General Trends in CAREC Merchandise Trade 60
• 2.3 Energy Trade 61
• 2.4 Intraregional Trade in Goods and Changes 63
• 2.5 Trade in Services 66
• 2.6 Diversifying Transport and Transit Routes 68
• 2.7 Conclusions and Policy Implications 83
• References 85
• Evolution of the China Railway Express in the Context of Policy 87
• Support Trade Trends and 87
• Infrastructure Supply 87
• 3.1 Introduction to CR Express 87
• 3.2 Policy Support for CR Express 93
• Development Potential 93
• 3.3 Demand Analysis for CR Express 95
• Development Potential 95
• 3.4 Supply of Infrastructure for CR Express 103
• Development Potential 103
• References 108
• Sustainable Transport 110
• Infrastructure 110
• Road Asset Management 110
• 4.1 Introduction 110
• 4.2 The Importance of RAM to CAREC Corridors 117
• 4.3 RAM in CAREC Countries 120
• 4.4 RAM as a Solution to Climate Change 126
• 4.5 Conclusions and Recommendations 130
• References 132
• Measuring the 134
• Impact of CAREC Transport Corridors 134
• Impact of the Middle Corridor 136
• Simulation Analysis of 136
• Infrastructure Investment in Central Asia and the Caucasus 136
• 5.2 Literature Review 138
• 5.3 Model Description 140
• 5.4 Scenario Analysis 1 Capacity Increase 145
• 5.5 Scenario Analysis 2 Function as an 150
• Alternative Route in an Emergency Case 150
• 5.6 Conclusion 157
• References 159
• Microeconomic Foundations of Enhancing the Transport 161
• Corridors Evidence from Firm 161
• Performance in Azerbaijan 161
• Georgia and Kazakhstan 161
• 6.1 Introduction 161
• 6.2 Methodology 165
• 6.3 Data 169
• 6.4 Estimation Results 176
• 6.5 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 181
• References 183
• Appendix 6 185
• Impact of Trade Facilitation Indicators on Trade Flows in Transport Corridors of the CAREC Region and 196
• Policy Implications 196
• 7.1 Introduction 196
• 7.2 Review of Literature 198
• 7.3 Theoretical Framework 199
• 7.4 Objectives and Methodology 204
• 7.5 Results and Discussion 208
• 7.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 217
• 7.7 Limitations and Future Research Direction 221
• References 222