Senegal Country Climate and Development Report

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Table of Contents

• List of Figures 6
• List of Tables 6
• Acronyms and Abbreviations 8
• Chapter 1: Climate Change and Development 15
• 1.1. Development Context 15
• 1.2. Climate Change Vulnerabilities 17
• 1.3. Greenhouse Gas emissions profiles 27
• Chapter 2: Country Climate Readiness 31
• 2.1. Climate Commitments 31
• 2.1.1. A Focus on Adaptation and Energy Transition 31
• 2.1.2. Incorporating Climate into National and Sectoral Strategies and Plans 31
• 2.2. Climate-Related Legislation and Institutional Coordination Mechanisms 33
• 2.2.1. Climate-Related Legislation 33
• 2.2.2. Institutional Coordination for Climate Change 35
• 2.3. Institutional Readiness for Climate Change Action 37
• 2.3.1. Integration into Investment Instruments and Budget Processes 37
• 2.3.2. Risks to Climate Action Due to Lack of Data Accessibility and Accountability 39
• 2.4. Private Sector Readiness 40
• 2.3.1. Integration into investment instruments and budget processes 40
• Chapter 3: Scaling Up Climate Action Across Natural, Built, and Human Capitals 47
• 3.1. Productive Landscapes 47
• 3.1.1. Food Security 47
• 3.1.2. Water Security 56
• 3.1.3. Forested Landscapes 58
• 3.2. Sustainable Cities 61
• 3.2.1. The Role of Cities in Driving Economic Development in Senegal 61
• 3.2.2. Vulnerability of Cities to Climate Risks 64
• 3.2.3. Investing in Cleaner, More Resilient, and More Productive Cities for Senegal’s Development Goals 66
• 3.3. Resilient Human Capital 70
• 3.3.1. Social Protection 71
• 3.3.2. Human Health 76
• 3.3.3. Education 79
• Chapter 4: Engaging the Energy Transition 83
• 4.1. A Dynamic Sector with Significant Growth and Transformation Potential 83
• 4.2. Senegal’s Vision for the Energy Transition: Balancing Increasing Access to Low-Cost Power with Climate Objectives 85
• 4.2.1. Universal Access 85
• 4.2.2. Energy Transition 86
• 4.2.3. Regional Integration 92
• 4.2.4. Energy Efficiency 93
• 4.2.5. Adaptation and Resilience 93
• Chapter 5: Rationale for a Climate‑Resilient, Low-Carbon Development Trajectory 97
• 5.1. The High Cost of Climate Inaction to Senegal’s Development Aspirations 97
• 5.1.1. Climate Uncertainty and Impact Channe Considerations for Senegal 97
• 5.1.2. The Impact of Climate Inaction on the Pace of Poverty Reduction 100
• 5.2. Benefits of Climate Action Beyond Adaptation and Mitigation 103
• 5.3. Boosting Growth and Poverty Reduction through Adaptation (Modeling in Select Sectors) 107
• 5.4. Opportunities in the New Hydrocarbon Sector 109
• Chapter 6: Financing Climate Action 113
• 6.1. Context: Climate Action Needs and Current Levels of Funding 113
• 6.2. Key Opportunities: Review of Promising Climate Finance Sources and Instruments 114
• 6.2.1. Market-Based Instruments 114
• 6.2.2. Concessional Finance 118
• 6.2.3. Dedicated Instruments 119
• 6.3. Leveraging Sources and Instruments to Mobilize Financing at Scale 122
• 6.3.1. Making the Most of Debt and Derisking Instruments 122
• 6.3.2. Tapping into Disaster Risk Financing 123
• 6.3.3. Aligning (Carbon) Prices 124
• 6.3.4. Strengthening the Role of Local Authorities in Climate Adaptation 126
• Figure B1.1.1. Evolution of Mean Annual Temperature (Left) and Number of Hot Days (Right) in Senegal 18
• Figure 1.2. Senegal’s GHG Emissions (1990–2022) 27
• Figure 1.4.1. Methane Gas Concentrations over Mbeubeuss, the Largest Landfill in West Africa 28
• Figure B2.1.1. Senegal’s Adaptation and Resilience Performance Across All Pillars 32
• Figure 2.1. Proposed Governance Framework for the Climate Change Agenda in Senegal 36
• Figure 2.2. Senegal’s Exposure to Climate Shock 40
• Figure 2.3. Estimated Average Annual Monetary Cost of Damages Caused by Climate Events (in US$ Thousands) 41
• Figure 2.4. Top 6 Channels of Climate Impacts on Enterprises (Share of Firms Affected) 41
• Figure 2.5. Share of Firms Using Climate Solutions, by Sector 42
• Figure 2.6. Types of Climate Solutions in Use 42
• Figure 2.7. Main Motivations for Use of Energy Efficiency Measures 43
• Figure 2.8. Main Reasons for Not Using Energy Efficiency Measures 43
• Figure 3.1. Climate Change Impact on Yields in the Nioro Region of Senegal (2050s) 48
• Figure B3.2.1: Level of Readiness for Agriculture and Food Security 50
• Figure B3.3.1: Map of Senegal Highlighting Areas Suitable for Naatangue Farming 51
• Figure B3.7.1. Observed and Predicted Presence of Dense Humid Forests in Senegal under SSP5-8.5 for the Period 2041–60 60
• Figure B3.8.1. Level of Readiness for Coastal Zone Management 63
• Figure 3.2. Overview of GHG Emissions by Sector and Subsector in the City of Dakar. 65
• Figure 3.3. Contribution (%) of Each Type of Vehicle to Road Transport GHG Emissions in Dakar 65
• Figure 3.4. National Social Protection Programs Contributing to Climate Adaptation in Senegal 72
• Figure 4.1. Production Schedule for Oil and Gas Fields (Government’s Estimates) 87
• Figure 4.2. Capacity Mix in Senegal (2022, Installed Capacity 1.7 GW ) 89
• Figure 4.3. Installed Capacity in 2022 and 2050 under the Base Case and the Low Emissions Scenarios 90
• Figure 4.4. CO2 Emissions under the Base Case and the Low Emissions Scenarios 91
• Figure 4.5. Cumulative Investment Needs 2022–50 in Billion US$ (Discounted at 6%) 91
• Figure 4.6. Average Production Cost (US$c/kWh) 91
• Figure 5.1. Figure ES.1. Cost of Inaction over Time (% Deviation in GDP from the Baseline) 98
• Figure 5.2. GDP Losses in Dry/Hot and Wet/Warm Climate Scenario, by Impact Channel 99
• Figure 5.3. The Effects of Climate Change on the Livelihoods of the Poor and Vulnerable 101
• Figure 5.4. The Impact of Poverty on Structural Change and Wages 102
• Figure 5.5. Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on Both Urban and Rural Populations 103
• Figure 5.6. CA/OPEX of Climate Action and Corresponding Emission Reductions 104
• Figure 5.7. Net Present Value of CA/OPEX of Climate Action and Corresponding Benefits 104
• Figure 5.8. Expected Public/Private Shares in Costs, by Sector 106
• Figure 5.9. A Snapshot of Potential Gains from Adaptation Action 108
• Figure 5.10. The Impacts of Adaptation Measures on Poverty Reduction Over Time 109
• Figure 6.1. Inefficiencies in How Energy Subsidies are Targeted 114
• Figure 6.2. Evaluating the Ambition of Senegal’s Sustainability Targets 116
• Figure 6.3. Evaluating the Feasibility of Senegal’s Sustainability Targets 116
• Figure 6.4. Stronger Compensation Measures to Mitigate the Short-Term Effects on Poverty 121
• Table 2.1. Awareness of Climate Exposure by Sector 40
• Table 2.3. Awareness and Adoption of GHG Reduction Measures by the Senegalese Private Sector over the Past Three Years 44
• Table 3.1. Carbon Dioxide Mitigation Potential for Climate-Smart Agriculture Interventions 53
• Table 4.1. Scenarios and Parameters for the Energy Transition Deep Dive 88
• Table 5.1. Climate Action Cost and Benefits by 2030 and 2050 105
• Table 6.1. Existing DRF Instruments in Senegal 120
• Box 1.1. Ongoing Climate Change and Current Impacts in Senegal 18
• Box 1.2. Values of Select Ecosystem Services in Senegal and West Africa 21
• Box 1.3. Climate Change and Migration 24
• Box 1.4. Precision Emission Surveys for Landfill and Gas Management in Senegal 28
• Box 2.1. What is Senegal’s Adaptation and Resilience Readiness? 32
• Box 2.2. Senegal’s 2024–26 Multiyear Budget and Economic Programming Document 37
• Box 2.3. Senegal’s Budget for 2024 38
• Box 2.4. Ten Policy Responses to Accelerate Climate Adaptation by the Private Sector in Senegal 45
• Box 3.1. Enhancing Adaptation Outcomes by Strengthening Women’s Land Rights 48
• Box 3.2. Key Insights from the Adaptation and R Diagnostic on Agriculture and Food Security 50
• Box 3.3. Assessing the Potential for Agroforestry in Senegal 51
• Box 3.4. Agriculture Sector Development in Senegal 52
• Box 3.5. Mangroves and Sea Grass Beds are Key for Coastal Adaptation and Mitigation 54
• Box 3.6. Promoting the Private Sector’s Role in Climate-Smart Tourism in Senegal 58
• Box 3.7. Climate Change Impact on Forest Cover and Carbon Stocks in Senegal (Mid-Century) 59
• Box 3.8. Key Insights from Adaptation and Resilience Diagnostic on Coastal Zone Management 63
• Box 3.9. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) for Adaptation in Dakar 69
• Box 3.10. Job Creation Opportunities for Climate Action in Senegal 75
• Box 3.11. Key Insights from Adaptation and Resilience Diagnostic on Human Health 76
• Box 4.1. Key Insights from Adaptation and Resilience Diagnostic on Energy 94