A manifestation of climate change, temperature increases in Bangladesh are increasing at an alarming rate, with frequent bouts of extreme heat events. In 43 years, between 1980 and 2023, maximum temperature in the country increased by 1.1°C, while the “feels like” temperature rose by 4.5°C over the same duration. How does increasing exposure to excess heat affect the physical and mental health outcomes of individuals and their productivity in the short term? An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh analyzes temperature changes in Bangladesh between 1976 and 2023. The study then uses primary data collected in 2024 from a two-round household survey covering more than 16,000 individuals in Bangladesh to quantify the adverse effect of rising temperatures on specific physical and mental health conditions as well as productivity losses. Using the findings, the report serves three main purposes: (1) provide localized evidence that links the effect of heat on health and recommend effective adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerabilities of the Bangladeshi population to heat; (2) quantify economic losses borne by the country due to global warming to assist Bangladeshi policy makers in leveraging international support and financing to mitigate the impacts; and (3) add evidence to the global discourse on heat and human physical and mental health, and loss of productivity. The evidence presented in this report underscores the immediate need for comprehensive strategies to address the escalating health risks posed by climate change, notably heat, in Bangladesh. Interventions that can help individuals moderate the effects of heat on their health are critical to ensure the well-being of the Bangladeshi population. Learning from best practices of climate-comparable countries and leveraging localized information, Bangladesh can create a more resilient future to better address the impacts of climate change.
Authors
- Citation
- “ Mahmud, Iffat ; Azfar Raza, Wameq ; Shabab Wahid, Syed . 2024 . An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh . International Development in Focus . © Washington, DC: World Bank . http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42377 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO . ”
- Collection(s)
- International Development in Focus
- DOI
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-2172-1
- ISBN
- 978-1-4648-2172-1
- Pages
- 110
- Published in
- United States of America
- Region country
- Bangladesh
- RelationisPartofseries
- International Development in Focus
- Rights
- CC BY 3.0 IGO
- Rights Holder
- World Bank
- Rights URI
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
- UNIT
- SACBB
- URI
- https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42377
- date disclosure
- 2024-11-07
- region administrative
- South Asia
Table of Contents
- Front Cover 1
- Contents 5
- Acknowledgments 9
- About the Authors 11
- Main Messages 13
- Executive Summary 17
- Abbreviations 27
- Part 1: Background and Context 29
- Chapter 1 Background and Introduction 31
- Global and local context: Heat and health 31
- Impact of heat on human health and productivity: Economic implications 33
- Objectives and purposes of the report 36
- Approval and quality assurance processes 36
- Notes 37
- References 37
- Chapter 2 Frequency of Extreme Heat in Bangladesh: 1976–2023 39
- Introduction 39
- The heat index: Definition and relevance 39
- Heat and temperature patterns for Bangladesh (national averages) 40
- Heat And Temperature Patterns For Dhaka 45
- Notes 49
- References 49
- Part 2 Data and Findings from the Household Survey 51
- Chapter 3 Data and Methods 53
- Introduction 53
- Household panel data 53
- Analytical techniques 58
- Respondent and climate profile 60
- Limitations 65
- Notes 65
- References 65
- Chapter 4 Heat and Physical Health 69
- Introduction 69
- Prevalence of select short-term physical health conditions and seasonality 69
- Correlates of heat exhaustion, diarrhea, and persistent cough 75
- Chapter 5: Heat and Mental Health Conditions 79
- Introduction 79
- Prevalence of mental health conditions and seasonality 79
- Associations of heat with depression, anxiety, and emotional regulation 82
- Chapter 6 Heat and Productivity Losses 87
- Introduction 87
- Loss of productivity and seasonality 87
- Associations of heat with productivity loss 90
- Annualized impact at the national level 92
- Part 3: The Way Forward 95
- Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations 97
- Conclusions 97
- Recommendations 98
- References 102
- Appendix A Operationalizing the Definitions of Heat Exhaustion and Heat Stroke 103
- Appendix B Localization of Temperature Data 105
- Appendix C Daily Temperature Range by Survey Round 107
- Figures 18
- Figure ES.1 Average annual increments of maximum temperature and the heat index for Bangladesh, 1980–2023 18
- Figure ES.2 Increases in the heat index in Dhaka, 1980-2023 19
- Figure ES.3 Heat-attributable loss to the economy 20
- Figure ES.4 Association between additional days exposed to temperature ranges and selected health conditions 21
- Figure 1.1 Exposure to health-threatening heat, measured as average number of days per year 32
- Figure 2.1 Annual maximum temperature and heat index for Bangladesh (national average), 1976-2023 41
- Figure 2.2 Average annual increments of maximum temperature and heat index for Bangladesh, 2015-23 41
- Figure 2.3 Warmest zones of Bangladesh, measured by heat index, 1980 and 2023 42
- Figure 2.4 Monthly variation of the heat index for Bangladesh, 2023 compared with 1980 45
- Figure 2.5 Increases in average maximum temperature and the heat index for Dhaka, 1976-2023 46
- Figure 2.6 Monthly variation of the heat index for Dhaka, 2023 compared with 1980 47
- Figure 2.7 Increases in the heat index per year, Dhaka compared with the national average 47
- Figure 2.8 Change in vegetation in Dhaka, 1989-2020 48
- Figure 3.1 Demographic profile at baseline, January 2024 61
- Figure 3.2 Education status baseline, January 2024 62
- Figure 3.3 Usual activity status at baseline, January 2024 63
- Figure 3.4 Days per temperature bin/range over the month preceding each survey round in January and and May 2024 64
- Figure 4.1 Prevalence of heat-related illnesses, by location 70
- Figure 4.2 Distribution of symptoms used to construct heat exhaustion and heat stroke 71
- Figure 4.3 Prevalence of heat-related illnesses, by age group 73
- Figure 4.4 Prevalence of heat-related illnesses, by gender 74
- Figure 4.5 Prevalence of heat-related illnesses, by socioeconomic status 75
- Figure 4.6 Correlates of physical health conditions 76
- Figure 5.1 Prevalence of mental health condition illnesses, by location 80
- Figure 5.2 Prevalence of depression and anxiety across demographic characteristics 81
- Figure 5.3 Prevalence of depression and anxiety across socioeconomic status 82
- Figure 5.4 Correlates of mental health outcomes 83
- Figure 6.1 Prevalence of average days of productivity lost due to physical and mental health conditions, by location 88
- Figure 6.2 Average days of productivity lost due to physical and mental health conditions, by demographic characteristic 89
- Figure 6.3 Average days of productivity lost due to physical and mental health conditions across socioeconomic status and usual activity 89
- Figure 6.4 Factors associated with days of productivity lost 91
- Figure 6.5 Annualized cost to productivity loss to the gross domestic product due to physical and mental health conditions 93
- Figure 6.6 Absolute annualized cost to the gross domestic product 94
- Figure 6.7 Cost as a percentage of the gross domestic product (real 2023) 94
- Figure B.1 A domain with irregularly spaced sample points and a location of interest X0 105
- Figure C.1 Daily temperature range, by survey round 107
- Maps 43
- Map 2.1 Variation in the heat index across Bangladesh: 1980 and 2023 43
- Map 3.1 Distribution of the urban and rural primary sampling units 54
- Tables 24
- Table ES.1 Matrix of policy options 24
- Table 2.1 Heat index classification 40
- Table 3.1 Sample distribution of the study 55
- Table A.1 Scoring mechanism used to ascertain the probability of a respondent experiencing heat exhaustion or a heat stroke during two weeks before each survey round 103