Armenia Country Climate and Development Report

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Table of Contents

• Table of Contents 3
• Acknowledgements 4
• Acronyms and Abbreviations 5
• Executive Summary 7
• Why climate mitigation and adaptation matter for Armenia 7
• MAIN MESSAGES 7
• Armenia Transformation Strategy 2050 9
• Getting the prices right and protecting vulnerable households 15
• Boosting private sector innovation and investments 15
• Strengthening the institutional and policy environment 16
• 1. Development and Climate in Armenia 19
• 1.1. Development context a need for new growth drivers to reduce 19
• MAIN MESSAGES 19
• Armenia Transformation Strategy 2050 21
• 1.2. Climate change context impacts on natural capital growth and poverty 21
• 1.3. Climate policy context risks and opportunities from the global energy 25
• Box 1 Air pollution a critical concern in Armenia 27
• 2. Climate commitments policies and capacities 29
• 2.1. Armenias major commitments and policies on climate change 29
• MAIN MESSAGES 29
• 2.2. Institutional framework for climate change action 31
• 2.2.1. Institutional capacity and coordination 32
• 2.2.2. Sectoral integration of climate agenda 32
• 2.2.3. Public financing for climate 33
• 2.3. Engaging the private sector 34
• 2.4. Leveraging citizen engagement to mobilize sustained climate action 35
• 3. Policies and investments to address climate and 36
• 3.1. Net zero pathways for the energy system 36
• System costs CAPEX investment System costs annual investment 36
• MAIN MESSAGES 36
• Box 2 Scenarios for the quantitative energy system analysis 36
• 3.1.1. Armenia is on track to achieve its 2030 NDC target but miss the 2050 per-capita 37
• 3.1.2. Additional mitigation efforts are necessary to achieve the 2050 NDC target under 39
• 3.1.3. Full decarbonization by 2060 requires further accelerating emissions reductions 39
• Box 3 Eliminating fugitive emissions from the natural gas grid to enable the use of low-carbon gases under the NZS 41
• 3.1.4. Energy-security and other co-benefits of decarbonization 45
• 3.1.5. Managing the social and financial risks of the transition 46
• Box 4 Phasing out traditional firewood use for heating in Armenia 47
• 3.2. Pathways for adaptation 49
• 3.2.1. Investing in water conservation and efficiency CSA practices land restoration 49
• 3.2.2. Policy and institutional reforms to promote adaptation 53
• 3.3. An integrated resilient low-carbon development pathway 56
• 4. Implications for poverty inclusion and the 59
• 4.1. The macroeconomic impacts of adaptation 59
• MAIN MESSAGES 59
• 4.1.1. Macroeconomic benefits of adaptation investments 60
• 4.1.2. Managing fiscal and financial sector risks from climate change 61
• 4.2. The macroeconomic implications of decarbonization 62
• Box 5 Macroeconomic modeling and scenarios impact on economic growth financial stability and debt sustainability 64
• 4.3. Financing the transition 65
• 4.3.1. Fiscal policies with a focus on carbon pricing 65
• 4.3.2. Policies to catalyze private investment 67
• 4.4. Inclusive transition 70
• 4.4.1. Impacts of climate change and decarbonization on poverty 70
• 4.4.2. Reducing the poverty and distributional implications of physical and transition impacts 72
• 4.4.3. Transition impacts on jobs and workers 72
• 4.5. Aligning climate and development policies 73
• 5. From assessment to action 75
• References 84
• Appendix Leveraging trade and trade policy for the green transition 87