This study uses nighttime lights to examine the evolution of economic activity in Afghanistan after the August 2021 regime change. A year later, nighttime luminosity had dropped by 20 percent, with two-thirds of this decline tied to the pre-planned international military withdrawal. To focus on local economic activity, the study filters out light emissions from foreign military installations, which accounted for up to 30 percent of lights over the past decade. Using civilian nighttime lights to understand the new economic reality in the country indicates a significant economic recovery concentrated in previously conflict-affected regions. By 2023/24, civilian luminosity had surpassed pre-2020/21 levels by 10.5 percent while, in contrast, official gross domestic product indicates an economy that is one-quarter smaller. The findings highlight changes in economic dynamics, including increased informality, shifts in the geographic distribution of activity, and improved security post-Taliban takeover.
Authors
Barriga Cabanillas,Oscar Eduardo, Kosmidou-Bradley,Walker Turnbull, Redaelli,Silvia, Tateishi,Eigo, Teruggi,Ivo
- DOI
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10969
- Disclosure Date
- 2024/11/06
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- Afghanistan's New Economic Landscape : Using Nighttime Lights to Understand the Civilian Economy after 2021
- Originating Unit
- Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
- Pages
- 38
- Published in
- United States of America
- Series Name
- Policy Research working paper; PROSPERITY; RRR;
- Unit Owning
- EFI-SAR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ESAPV)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1
Table of Contents
- Afghanistan’s New Economic Landscape: Using Nighttime Lights to Understand the Civilian Economy after 20210F 3
- Introduction and motivation 4
- 1. Literature review 7
- 2. Afghanistan context 9
- 3. Data and methods 11
- 4. Results 13
- 4.1 Compared with total luminosity, civilian nighttime lights are better at tracking the evolution of economic activity 13
- 4.2 Civilian lights show economic activity is growing post 2022 16
- 4.3 Nighttime lights indicate that the spatial distribution of economic activity has changed since 2020 21
- 5. Conclusions 23
- References 25
- Annex 27
- Annex A: Additional figures and tables 27
- Annex B: Further data validation 30
- Annex C: Synthetic controls methodology 34
