This paper examines the implications of the IMF's April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in governments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middle-income countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs.
Authors
Kurowski,Christoph, Schmidt,Martin, Evans,David B, Tandon,Ajay, Eozenou,Patrick Hoang-Vu, Cain,Jewelwayne Salcedo, Pambudi,Eko Setyo
- Disclosure Date
- 2024/11/05
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029 - Diverging Fiscal Pressures, Uneven Constraints
- Pages
- 42
- Product Line
- Advisory Services & Analytics
- Published in
- United States of America
- Rel Proj ID
- 1W-Health Financing Global Pasa Subtask 1: Resource Mobilisation A -- P506692
- Series Name
- Double Shock; Double Recovery Paper Series;
- TF No/Name
- TF0C5213-WB IMF collaboration (BMGF),TF0C5295-Bangladesh: DAH transition and EPI financing strategy,TF0C5318-HLNP - GAVI Sustainable financing (RM agenda)
- Unit Owning
- People - HNP Global Engagement (HHNGE)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1
Files
Table of Contents
- Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029 2
- Diverging Fiscal Pressures Uneven Constraints 2
- Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029 4
- Diverging Fiscal Pressures Uneven Constraints 4
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5
- TABLE OF CONTENTS 6
- LIST OF FIGURES MAPS AND TABLES 7
- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 9
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10
- Old Scars New Wounds 10
- INTRODUCTION 12
- GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE 14
- GOVERNMENT HEALTH EXPENDITURE 19
- Achieving the outcomes of scenario 3 20
- Country-specific trends 21
- Achieving the outcomes of scenario 3 22
- Country-specific trends 23
- Achieving the outcomes of scenario 3 24
- Country-specific trends 25
- CONCLUSIONS 28
- Old Scars New Wounds 28
- BIBLIOGRAPHY 31
- Health Systems and Reform 31
- Macroeconomics and Health Investing in Health 31
- The Lancet 31
- World Health Organization 32
- Bulletin of the World Health Organization 32
- Health Economics Policy and Law 32
- The Lancet Global Health 32
- ANNEX 1. MACRO-FISCAL FORECASTS 33
- ANNEX 2. IMPLICATIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT HEALTH SPENDING SCENARIOS BY COUNTRY 37
