Narrative Intelligence: Detecting Chinese and Russian Information Operations to Disrupt NATO Unity

As geopolitical conflicts are increasingly shaped by misleading and deceptive information, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) has become an indispensable tool in understanding adversarial information operations and being able to compete in the information environment. Noting the value of OSINT, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) recently published a framework for the intelligence community to leverage commercially available information. Competition in the information environment among major powers is not new or unique. Today, Russia and China strategically employ information operations as part of their attempts to undermine US interests. China has actively used information operations to generate favorable strategic outcomes in Africa. Russian and Chinese messaging is also aligned in exploiting how the Israel-Hamas conflict is characterized. In this competition space, the distinction between signal and noise is more heightened than ever. As the volume of data increases, so does the challenge of identifying what matters — the relevant information that can be synthesized into actionable intelligence. This makes OSINT crucial for tracking and analyzing security threats as well as for monitoring the ebb and flow of online narratives that can influence public opinion and shape national security policy. Derived primarily from online content published by malign actors, narrative intelligence (NARINT) is an increasingly critical tool of OSINT analysis. It refers to the study and analysis of disinformation and propaganda surfaced on social media platforms, news sites, internet forums, blogs, and the dark web. By thoroughly assessing these materials, analysts can gain a clearer understanding of the narrative tactics foreign entities are using to create hostile divisions and erode basic trust in the nation’s institutions. NARINT is particularly critical to detect, analyze, and compete against adversarial information operations that attempt to undermine US national security interests. It can parse through news, blogs, forums, social media, the dark web, digital broadcasts, and other sources to provide insights that are critical for early indications and warnings. Moreover, it can show how narratives shift and affect public sentiments and opinions about conflicts.