Lithuania’s Parliamentary Elections: Domestic and Foreign Policy

Lithuania’s general election has resulted in a crushing defeat for the incumbent center-right government, led by Ingrida Šimonytė. The largest party of the outgoing governing coalition, the Homeland Union, lost nearly half of its seats and came a distant second with 28 MPs in the 141-seat parliament, while one of their junior coalition parties, the liberal Freedom Party, failed to win a single seat. Only one of the coalition parties, the Liberal Movement, managed to perform well, securing 12 seats (only one down from 13). Meanwhile, the big winners were the Social Democrats with 52 seats. Other parties making it to the parliament include the newly formed right-wing party, Nemunas Dawn, with 20 seats, centrist Democrats for Lithuania (14 seats) and populist Peasants and Greens (eight seats). The other seats were won by smaller parties or individual candidates. The crushing nature of the defeat has already led the chair of the Homeland Union party, outgoing Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, to announce not only his resignation from party leadership but also his retirement from politics. The outgoing government dealt with the effects of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite those challenges and a term marred by several scandals that led to the resignation of two ministers, it was primarily domestic politics that led to a change in government. The electoral campaign was generally fought on four fronts. The first of them was the economy and cost of living. Effectively, the campaign was largely centered around the classic question: “How do you feel about the economy?” While the Lithuanian economy is generally healthy, especially in comparison with Baltic neighbors Latvia and Estonia, much of the population is still recovering from a period of high inflation, caused by the twin shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The effect of the latter was particularly noticeable due to an increase in energy prices. At the same time, strong regional differences remain — particularly between, on the one hand, the capital Vilnius, and (to a lesser extent) other big cities and, on the other hand, smaller towns and rural areas. Hence, the results of economic growth continue to be felt very unevenly, if at all. The parties of the governing coalition campaigned for the support of the better-off urban population, while the opposition parties primarily targeted the vote of the rural population, as well as the less economically dynamic parts of the urban electorate. Taxation also proved to be a major issue. Here, paradoxically, the largest party in the outgoing government, the Homeland Union, campaigned on a platform very similar to much of the opposition: Already while in government they had attempted to implement tax rises for the self-employed and other groups, as well as businesses, only to be thwarted in these plans by their junior coalition partners. Hence, on the campaign trail, it was the two liberal parties against everyone else. Since taxing businesses and high earners to increase social spending continues to be a popular proposition in Lithuania, the pro-spending side has claimed a clear victory.