This working paper from the Oxford Smith School outlines an economically viable climate finance target for COP29, emphasizing a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) to support developing nations. The analysis utilizes negotiation transcripts and machine learning to derive overlooked financial concepts such as discounting and a clawback mechanism for undelivered commitments. The report suggests a justifiable finance target range between $0.3 to $9.5 trillion annually, focusing on a median goal of $1.7 trillion, based on 11,875 scenario simulations. It emphasizes the economic imperative of immediate climate finance to avoid higher costs later and discusses innovative financial mechanisms, such as public finance backstops for shortfalls in private investment, periodic reassessment of goals, and prioritizing finance quality. A new calculator tool is introduced to aid in aligning proposals with economic realities.
Authors
- Pages
- 20
- Published in
- United Kingdom
Table of Contents
- SSEE Working paper template 2024.pdf 1
- Oxford Smith School Working Paper - NCQG COP29 - Embargoed 00.01 8 Nov 2024.pdf 3
- INTRODUCTION 4
- Analysis of negotiation materials suggest seven key financial variables 5
- An equation for annual climate finance disbursement 6
- 12,000 scenarios for climate finance targets 8
- METHODS 12
- LIST OF SUPPLEMANTARY INFORMATION 16
- REFERENCES 17
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 20
- ETHICS DECLARATION 20
