The Multi-National Joint Task Force is a combined force active around the Lake Chad Basin, and 17 Please refer to the Annex for guidance on how to read the plots and composed of troops in Benin, Cameroon, Chad, for an explanation of the concept of uncertainty in climate projections. [...] In this context, that poverty, unemployment and the lack of liveli- tensions between local and migrant communities hood options were the main motives identified by over the sharing and tenure of the land and forest young people for joining Jihadist armed groups; are increasingly leading to outbreaks of violence, factors which also exacerbate the effects of climate which contribute to the displacem. [...] (OMVG), the LCBC and the ANB, have had less suc- cess than the OMVS due to basin characteristics and While the emergence of armed opposition groups lack of collective action (Guillier and Brown 2022).20 in the Sahel has ruralised conflict in Western The younger Volta Basin Authority (VBA) has expe- Africa, cities remain centres of conflict due to rienced significant difficulties in collecting data. [...] For exam- ple, the ECOWAS meets regularly with the largest Given the complexity of the links between climate regional herders’ network, the Billital Maroobé Net- change, environmental degradation, and peace work (Réseau Billital Maroobé, RBM), to take stock of and security, and the impact of these links on the latest transhumance campaigns and to mitigate development and humanitarian action, exper. [...] encourage UN information sharing and cross-pil- lar coordination to reduce the adverse implications ECOWAS and UNOWAS are engaged in a major of climate change and environmental degradation collaborative effort with the broader UN system, on human security, and to address the impacts government agencies, and civil society organisa- of these phenomena on mobility and peace in the tions to address th.
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Table of Contents
- Africa Climate Security Risk Assessment 1
- Summary 2
- Pathway 1 Livelihood and food insecurity driving conflicts over natural resources 3
- Pathway 2 Climate change driving the profileration of armed groups and violent extremism 3
- Pathway 3 Climate-induced changes in migration patterns can increase insecurity and conflict 4
- Pathway 4 Western African cities as hotspots of climate security risks 4
- Context 5
- Climate change and impacts 7
- Responses and good practices 17
- Lake Chad Not a shrinking lake but a fluctuating one 22
- How to read the plots 23