There is no such thing as a safe seat - A notable trend in Australian politics has been the decline of the share of the vote won by both major parties at federal elections. One effect of this is that there are no longer any

A seat is considered marginal if the winning won more than 40% of the national vote; the 2022 party receives less than 56% of the vote; fairly safe election was the first time that neither cracked 40%. [...] The share of Australians voting outside of the major The rationale for these categories is that a parties has increased from single digits in the 1970s marginal seat is supposed to be much more to 31% at the most recent election in 2022, almost vulnerable than a safe one. [...] When independent and minor Safe seats lost to independents and minor parties in party candidates can win the 2022 federal election otherwise safe seats, it limits the usefulness of the two-party • Mackellar: Won by independent Sophie Scamps, despite the preferred national vote share and Liberal Party having won with 63% of the two-party preferred even the significance of “national vote in 2019, an. [...] Political commentators have • Fowler: Won by independent Dai Le, despite the Labor Party used the “electoral pendulum” of having won with 64% of the two-party preferred vote in 2019, safe and marginal seats to and having held the seat for four decades. [...] As of the 2022 election, Liberals having won with 64% of the two-party preferred vote the pendulum only predicted 22% in 2019, and having held the seat for all but three years since of the seat changes, down from a 1949.