The median purchase rate held steady at 6.63% in week 45, 2024. According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 7.01% on Nov. 13 th . Purchase volume was down 36% from the same week in 2019, and up 3% YoY, with volume slowing with increasing rates. Preliminary YoY HPA was 4.2% in September 2024. It is projected to be 4.4%, 4.5, and 4.6% for Oct. 2024, Nov. 2024, and the first two weeks of Dec. 2024, respectively. Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified. Our base HPA projection calls for y-o-y HPA of +4.7% and +5.5% by year-end 2024 and 2025 respectively.
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- Median purchase rate held steady at 6.63 in week 45 2024. It is down 1.12 ppts. from the series peak in week 43 2023 and reports the avg. 30-year rate was 7.01 on Nov. 13 . 1
- Purchase volume down 36 from the same week in 2019 and up 3 YoY with volume slowing with increasing rates. 1
- Cash-out volume down 66 from the same week in 2019 but up 22 YoY. 1
- No cash-out volume down 90 from the same week in 2019 due to refi burnout but up 106 YoY albeit from a very low level. 1
- These conditions will likely continue through the fall of 2024. Metros in the Midwest which continue to be relatively affordable are among the metros leading the upswing in HPA. 1
- Our base HPA projection calls for YoY HPA of 4.7 and 5.5 by year-end 2024 and 2025 respectively. 1
