Against the backdrop of aging, Indonesia has started to address important policy challenges, including by gradually raising the retirement age. However, the increase in the retirement age and the prospect of longer employment of older persons raises concerns about its potential impact on the employment of younger persons. This paper is the first to analyze the relationship between the employment rate of older persons and the labor market outcomes of younger persons in Indonesia. Using data from the Indonesia Labour Force Survey (Sakernas) for 2016 to 2023, the analysis explores the relationship between the labor market outcomes - that is, the employment rates, unemployment rates, hours worked, and income - of younger persons and older persons. The findings show that overall, an increase in the employment rate of older persons is significantly associated with an increase in the employment rate of youth and prime-aged persons. The positive relationship is robust and is found across most of the specifications tested, that is, across genders, education levels, sectors, and within the formal sector. Encouragingly, there is no evidence of a significant negative relationship between the employment of older persons and younger persons. When there is a significant negative relationship between the employment of older persons and other employment outcomes of younger persons, the magnitude is small. These findings support the notion that raising the retirement age can address some of the challenges faced by an aging society. Finally, lifelong learning, upskilling, and reskilling are important to facilitate longer working lives by ensuring that older workers remain employable in a changing economy.
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- DOI
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10972
- Disclosure Date
- 2024/11/12
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- Are There Jobs for Everyone ? An Analysis of the Relationship between the Employment of Older and Younger Persons in Indonesia
- Originating Unit
- Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
- Pages
- 36
- Product Line
- Advisory Services & Analytics
- Published in
- United States of America
- Rel Proj ID
- ID-Indonesia Social Protection Reform Pasa -- P177341
- Series Name
- Policy Research working paper;
- TF No/Name
- TF0B6504-ID SP PASA - SI - Informal Coverage Expansion,TF0B6528-ID SP PASA - SI - Pension Systems Integration,TF0B6582-Strengthening Indonesia's Social Assistance System to be Inclusive, Int,TF0B6621-ID SP PASA - SI - Delivery Systems and UI,TF0B7849-Fostering a stronger and more inclusive Social Protection System in Ind,TF0C2289-ABIP - CSP SJSN Reform Support,TF0C2305-Labor Market Analytics to Support an Inclusive Green Transition in Ind-,TF0C2503-Social Protection Workshop Series,TF0C2557-Fostering a stronger and more inclusive Social Protection System in In-
- Unit Owning
- Social Protection & Labor EAP (HEASP)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1
Table of Contents
- Policy Research Working Paper 10972 1
- An Analysis of the Relationship between the Employment 1
- Are There Jobs for Everyone 3
- An Analysis of the Relationship between the Employment of Older and Younger Persons in Indonesia 3
- JEL Classification J14 J21 J26 3
- Keywords aging employment youth employment 3
- 1 Introduction 3
- Jaminan Hari Tua Jaminan Pensiun 4
- 2 An overview of the Indonesian labor market 6
- 3 Literature review 10
- 4 Data and methodology 11
- 5 Findings 13
- 5.2.1 Analyzing the relationship between the employment rate of older persons and younger 14
- 5.2.2 Analyzing the relationship between the formal employment rate of older persons and 15
- 5.2.3 Analyzing the relationship between the employment rate of older persons and younger 16
- 5.2.4 Analyzing the relationship between the employment rate of older persons and the 16
- 5.2.5 Analyzing the relationship between the employment rate of older women and the 17
- 5.2.6 Robustness tests Generalized least squares regression and using a lagged independent 17
- 6 Summary of findings and conclusion 30
- References 32
- The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 32
- International Labour Review 32
- Economic Policy 32
- De Economist 158 32
- IZA Journal of Labor Policy 32
- The Manchester School 22 32
- Statistic Norway 32
- Annex 1 Descriptive statistics 34