Reaching and competing in the US market is a daunting prospect for even the most established manufacturer, and AGOA preferences are often inadequate to counteract the costs of underdeveloped regional productive networks or the complexities of navigating the logistics and customs systems on the way to the US market. [...] Trade with the United States Despite these concerns and the significant shift in the structure of tariffs between Africa and the United States brought about by AGOA, the volume and composition of trade between Africa and the United States hasn’t changed as dramatically. [...] This is a significant saving, but in the context of the scale of exports and the value of the sectors themselves, it is relatively small. [...] Investment and services While much of the focus under AGOA understandably falls on trade in goods, the US is world’s largest market for services trade, and much of the benefits of the relationship between the US and the AGOA bloc fall in their trade in services and investment sectors. [...] The negotiations began in mid-2020, with the expressed intention to negotiate a trade agreement that was “responding to Congress’ support, as expressed in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), to negotiate reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade agreements that serve the interests of both the United States and the countries of sub-Saharan Africa”.1 The objectives noted that “(o)ur vision.
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- South Africa
Table of Contents
- CONTENTS 2
- Figures 2
- Tables 3
- ABBREVIATIONS 4
- KEY FACTS AND FIGURES 5
- US145 billion 5
- US36 billion 5
- US116 million 5
- 2.8 5
- 155 042 5
- US665 billion 5
- US599 billion 5
- INTRODUCTION 6
- With AGOAs 2025 expiry close on the horizon the time is right 7
- 1. TRADE UNDER AGOA 8
- 1.1. History of AGOA 8
- 1.2. Trade with the United States 9
- 1.3. Trade via AGOAGSP 11
- 1.4. Tariff profiles 15
- Table 3 Scale of tariff preference in AGOAGSP by sector 2022 16
- 1.5. Africa trade under AGOA 17
- Transforming trade will require a more substantial investment in 20
- 2. BILATERAL IMPACT OF AGOA 21
- 2.1. Employment and welfare 21
- 2.2. Investment and services 23
- 2.3. Critical inputs 26
- 3. REGIONAL IMPACT OF AGOA 29
- 3.1. Direct exports to the US 29
- 3.2. Regional routes to market 31
- While the renewal of AGOA is always a moment of considerable uncertainty the current renewal process is considerably more complex than most previous 33
- South Africas allegiance with Russia and China. 33
- 4. THE FUTURE OF AGOA 34
- 4.1. Political economy 34
- 4.2. Scope for expansion 40
- 4.3. Labour priorities 42
- 4.4. Responding to exclusion 45
- ANNEXURES 46
- Annex 1 US Critical Minerals 46
- Annex 2 Employment vulnerability assessment 47
- Annex 3 AGOA expansion potential 49
