Acknowledgments ● Environmental Protection Agency ● North Pacific Research Board ● Alaska Sea Grant Project Goal ●Provide rapid assessment based on reasoned expert judgment on impacts of climate change on red king crab biomass and harvest in the eastern Bering Sea through 2030 and 2050 Photo: T. [...] 2002) Benthos Filter feeders Crab Detritivores growth & reproduction Expected Effects on Larval Prey Timing Key Description Climate of Baseline 2030 2050 Parameter Winter sea 1980-1999 -0.16 X 106 km2 -0.20 X 106 km2 ice extent mean winter sea ice extent -36.4% -45.5% 0.44 X 106 km2 Expected Effects on Larval Prey Timing 2030 2050 Area L C H L C H Bristol Bay 0 + ++ + + ++ Pribilof Islands 0 + ++. [...] Stevens, NMFS Expected Effects on Larval Advection Centers of Distribution of mature female red king crabs in Bristol Bay (Zheng & Kruse 2006) 1970s 1989-90, 1999-2000 1980-90s, 2000s Expected Effects on Larval Advection Norton Sound Alaska Eastern RKC Juvenile Bering Sea Nursery AreasBriWsatorml Pribilof Bay Islands Cool Gulf of Alaska Expected Effects on Larval Advection OSCURS Advection Model (. [...] ● Benefits of conservative fishery management and improved match of larval hatch with prey are overwhelmed by negative effects of larval advection, increased juvenile predation and loss of benthic energy flow. [...] Next Steps ● Field/laboratory studies and retrospective analyses – to confirm bases for proposed mechanisms linking climate to red king crabs ● Simulation modeling – to provide quantitative estimates of cumulative effects of various mechanisms on crab stocks ● Management strategy evaluation – to evaluate effects of climate change on future harvests using current and alternative management strategi.
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