Acknowledging and understanding variability in simulating bushfires: Part 1 – Evaluation of FireDST against the Kilmore fire of 7 February 2009.

The ensemble data enables assessment of the sensitivity of the modelled fire spread due to the variations in the input parameters. [...] The visualisation of the ensemble smoke products included mapping the intensity in terms of the maximum concentration, as well as the overlapping spread of the gases. [...] To model the fire spread, the system ingests information on the location and timing of a fire’s ignition as well as the fuel and the weather at the time of the fire (see Figure 3.1). [...] The information allowed the visualisation of the fire simulations and ensembles in the context of the Kilmore region. [...] The percentage overlap in the final shape is calculated by converting the numbers in the overlap shapes to a percentage of the total number of fires in the ensemble.