Acknowledging and understanding variability in simulating bushfires: Part 3 – Evaluation of FireDST against the Mt Hall fire of 24 December 2001.

The ensemble data enables assessment of the sensitivity of the modelled fire spread due to the variations in the input parameters. [...] In particular: • Chapter 4 discusses how FireDST assesses and visualises variability in the fire spread; Visualisation of the variability of the simulated fire shape or impacts is key to understanding the sensitivity of the model; • Chapter 5 discusses how FireDST assesses the sensitivity of the fire spread to the surface weather; • Chapter 6 discusses how FireDST assesses the sensitivity of the f. [...] To model the fire spread, the system ingests information on the location and timing of a fire’s ignition as well as the fuel and the weather at the time of the fire (see Figure 3.1). [...] The information allowed the visualisation of the fire simulations and ensembles in the context of the Mt Hall region. [...] Mapping the ensemble fire spread illustrates the sensitivity of the fire spread to the variation of the input parameters used to create the ensemble.