Acknowledging and understanding variability in simulating bushfires: Part 2 – Evaluation of FireDST against the Wangary fire of 10 January 2005.

The ensemble data enables assessment of the sensitivity of the modelled fire spread due to the variations in the input parameters. [...] The relatively large difference between the FireDST modelled and historical fire spread, despite adjustments to the modelled weather conditions, suggests that the error in the weather data is not the dominant factor limiting the accuracy of the simulated fire spread. [...] Only a few of the results increased the accuracy of the simulations to the point where the simulations almost matched the reconstruction. [...] To model the fire spread, the system ingests information on the location and timing of a fire’s ignition as well as the fuel and the weather at the time of the fire (see Figure 3.1). [...] The information allowed the visualisation of the fire simulations and ensembles in the context of the Wangary region.