Efforts to contain the ongoing conflict in Mozambique appear to be losing ground. According to
reports, Niassa province is now likely to become the next frontier of insurgent activity by the Islamist group Ahlu-Sunna Wa-Jama’a (ASWJ). This comes amid offensives by troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda in Cabo Delgado, the birthplace of the conflict, leading to speculation that the ASWJ has shifted the base of its operations. The Islamic State (IS) has claimed ties to the group, but the extent of these linkages is unknown. Meanwhile a growing body of evidence speaks to the localised dimensions of the conflict and the need for enhanced governance.Recent
research by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) has found that ASWJ recruits youth into the insurgency by appealing to their feelings of marginalisation across economic, political, security and social spheres. The research, which was conducted in September 2021 in partnership with the Centre for Democratic Dialogue (CDD) in Mozambique, hosted focus groups with young people to understand the drivers and key challenges surrounding youth recruitment while also seeking possible pathways to inclusion for disenfranchised youth. From these discussions, the researchers identified five critical elements at play:
- Material considerations relating to a lack of inclusive economic development;
- The manipulation of religious and ethnic identities;
- A lack of safety and security;
- Weak governance and democratic despondency; and
- Fractured social cohesion
All of these speak to the overarching structural constraints of living in Mozambique’s underdeveloped north. Without a concerted effort to address these structural drivers, military action is unlikely to yield lasting peace.Overwhelmingly, youths cited hunger, poverty and unemployment as factors that drive them to recruitment. Cabo Delgado is often labelled the ‘Forgotten Cape/Cabo Esquecido’ due to its extremely low levels of human development that are largely the result of unequal resource dispensation. Nationally, almost one in two Mozambican youths report going without food ‘several times’, ‘many times’, or ‘always’ according to the IJR’s 2021 Afrobarometer public opinion survey data, and this figure may even be higher in Cabo Delgado*. In the province, these challenges are overlayed by perceptions of elite enrichment by former FRELIMO military figures and an illicit economy that thrives on corruption. Coupled with educational deficits, poor infrastructure, and a near absence of government services, youth feel slighted and find few alternative prospects for their future.Safety and security is another factor driving youths to extremism. According to
Afrobarometer data, one in three citizens (31%) fear extremist violence. Given high levels of distrust between society and the national army, the focus groups revealed instances where youths felt safer in joining the ASWJ than the government. Human-rights abuses, heavy-handed state repression and corruption have done little to instill trust, although there are expectations that the situation will improve with foreign intervention. This speaks to the state-centric system of the government that pits people apart in an “us-and-them” scenario.Youth also alluded to a manipulation of both religious texts and ethnic identities as factors behind recruitment. Although widely touted as a religious conflict, IJR’s research found that economic incentives have been used to lure young people into mosques where extreme Salafist religious messages were being preached. This often overlapped with ethnic factors related to perceptions of inequitable resource distribution among different ethnic groups. According to Afrobarometer, one in four people feel that they have been treated unfairly based on religion or ethnicity. These findings confirm
research by the United Nations (UN), that found that, while religion is often cited as a reason for joining extremist groups, many of these recruits have little or no understanding of religious texts. Moreover, higher than average years of religious schooling actually builds resilience, bringing to the fore the importance of creating counter-narratives to disrupt extremist interpretations of religious texts. Rather, it is the patronage underlying ethnic identities that remains critical to address.
