This is an updated version of IMIS Working Paper 14/2022. Short Analysis The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Scope, Patterns and Future Development of Displacement
28 March 2022
The paper is based on an analysis of patterns of displacement in the wake of Russia's first intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the application of these patterns to two possible scenarios of the invasion and accordingly dis- placement in 2022 and observations made on the ground. [...] The conflict directly affected about 59% of the population in the occupied parts and the combat zone and indi- rectly others living close to the conflict zone. [...] Ultimately, however, the actual extent of displacement is determined by the intensity of the fighting, the duration of the conflict and extent of destruction, the nature and actions of the occupying power, and the impact on the economy and resilience of the population (see also here). [...] The case of Donetsk and Luhansk used in developing these scenarios is characterized by a continuation of fighting, the installation of a puppet regime and a degree of arbitrary rule in the occupied territory, and extensive destruction of industry and infrastructure and thus of the economic base. [...] The scenarios are developed by applying the patterns of the 2014 displacement – 54% to 59% of the affected populations fled, 20% to Russia and 80% to other parts of the country – but corrected on the basis of mi- gration restrictions, men are not currently allowed to leave the country, and current observations, only 5.7% flee to Russia.