Ukraine War Sparks Suspicion over Russia’s Designs on Kazakhstan

For all its years of independence, Kazakhstan has worried about Russian irredentist dreams of Kazakh territory. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, such concerns seem well-founded. They have heard such threats coming from Russian officials and some Russians in Kazakhstan for all the years that Kazakhstan has been independent. On March 26, 2022, Sergei Savostyanov, a deputy in the Moscow City Duma (Council), released a statement supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as necessary to “denazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine. Savostyanov said Russia should further ensure its security by taking similar measures in the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, and Kazakhstan. Some would consider Savostyanov’s comments ludicrous, but Kazakh officials take such remarks seriously since Russian designs on Kazakhstan have been repeated for 30 years. In a May 1992 interview with the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta , Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, addressed comments from a congress of Russian people’s deputies in Moscow that Kazakhstan’s Guryev Province (now called Atyrau) and Tselinograd Province (now called Akmola) were “ancient Russian territories.” Nazarbayev said, “Any border claims on Kazakhstan, and indeed any other (former Soviet) republic mean inevitable bloodshed.” Nazarbayev added that he would never allow any part of Kazakhstan’s territory to be “removed.” He also noted, “In Kazakhstan 35 percent of the population is Russian and 40 percent is Kazakh.” Nazarbayev did not mention that most of that Russian population lived in northern areas of the country and at that time represented the majority there. With a new constitution being drawn up in 1992, the debate on the state language polarized small sections of the Russian and Kazakh populations of Kazakhstan. The Russian side wanted Russian language to have official status, while the more nationalist elements among the ethnic Kazakh population found it demeaning that any other language besides Kazakh would have such status. A group in Kazakhstan called the Slavic Movement spoke out in February 1992 about a “purposeful state policy of ousting the Russian-speaking population from the republic’s territory” and called for ethnic Russians to be the heads of administrations in areas that were predominantly populated by Russians. Calls for Kazakh Territory to Join Russia Throughout the 1990s, there were Russian and Cossack groups in Kazakhstan who called for areas in northern Kazakhstan to join Russia. Boris Suprunyuk from the northeastern Kazakh city of Petropavlovsk was the leader of one such group, the Congress of Russian Community, and he was the chief editor of the independent newspaper Glas . Suprunyuk pushed ethnic Russian demands for greater rights and autonomy. He was charged in 1993 with violating Article 60 of the criminal code, “intentional public dissemination of opinions and ideas undermining confidence in and respect for Kazakh people and stirring ethnic discord.” Suprunyuk ignored the initial summons and was finally arrested in April 1994. He was found guilty in September that year and sentenced to two years in prison, but the Russian embassy in Kazakhstan and the Russian Duma issued a series of statements asking for access to Suprunyuk and accusing Kazakh authorities of violating the Treaty of Friendship. Suprunyuk was found guilty in September 1994 and given a two-year suspended prison sentence, but a different court overruled that sentence in November and dismissed the case. Russia also pressured Kazakhstan when Fedor Cherepanov, the ataman of the East Kazakhstan Province Cossacks, was kidnapped in October 1994. Cherepanov was calling for either greater autonomy for East Kazakhstan or its incorporation into Russia. Russia urged Kazakh authorities to find and free Cherepanov.[1] He later reappeared, claiming to have escaped his captors (though there are reports the Kazakh government paid a ransom for his release), and left for Russia before year’s end. Nikolai Gunkin, the ataman of the Semirechye Cossacks, was arrested in late October 1995 as he attempted to register as a political candidate in the December parliamentary elections. Gunkin was charged with organizing an unsanctioned meeting, which “Gunkin described as a religious procession,” but Kazakh authorities said was a meeting of Russian nationalists. The Union of Russian Cossacks issued a statement calling for Gunkin’s immediate release. The Russian Ministry for Nationalities Affairs and Regional Policy said Gunkin’s arrest was an “attempt to hold elections to the Kazakh parliament (scheduled for December 9) without considering the interests of Kazakhstan’s Russian-speaking population.” Then, the Russian Duma adopted a resolution of support for Gunkin that voiced concerns about the “violations of rights and freedoms of both ethnic Russians and Russian citizens in Kazakhstan.”  Gunkin was released after three months and in February 1996 was accusing Kazakh authorities of implementing a policy of “genocide against ethnic Russians.