GDP growth based on February 2022 data: a calm before the storm? - Figure 1 - Georgia, Real GDP Growth Rate (Y/Y)

Considering the rapid estimate of economic growth for January-February 2022, Q1 forecast is expected to considerably underestimate the real GDP growth, while the negative growth in Q2 is driven in part by the high base effect from Q2 2021, when quarter’s growth reached 28.9%. [...] In February, the number of international visitors increased by 274.8% yearly (decreased by 64.5% compared to the same month in 2020), while the increase in tourist numbers (visitors who spent 24 hours or more in Georgia) amounted to 282.4%. [...] Moreover, the GEL/TRY, GEL/EUR, GEL/USD, and GEL/RUB real exchange rate appreciated compared to the same month of the previous year by 56.1%, 26.0%, 16.0%, and 18.9% respectively. [...] Overall, money supply related variables had a positive contribution to the real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2022 based on our model. [...] The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.