Both the relative weakness of Russia, as revealed in the first period of the war, and the absence of the desired breakthrough in relations with the West have reinforced traditional and con- tentious tendencies in Turkish politics. [...] Russia’s limited successes in the early days of the conflict and the West’s firm stance prompted Turkey to actively, but discreetly, support Ukraine, including through the supply of equipment (the sale of Bayraktar drones as exposed by the media), the blocking of the Black Sea straits to Russian ships not belonging to the Black Sea Fleet (on 27 February under Article 19 of the Montreux Convention). [...] An additional dimension to the problem, raised in the media as early as the beginning of March, lay in fears of a spike in the prices of basic foodstuffs in the Middle East and the consequent threat of mass protests analogous to the Arab Spring of 2011. [...] The conduct of the offensive and its eventual success would raise Turkey’s international profile, especially in the face of concerns about the stability of the Middle East and North Africa, and define the nature and real value of its cooperation/rivalry with Washington and the Alliance on the one hand, and Moscow on the other. [...] In the international context, economic problems raise the importance of the West for Turkey – it belongs to the Western economic system, as this alone has the potential to stabilise and repair the financial system in the long term (at the price of costly reforms).
Authors
- Pages
- 7
- Published in
- Poland
