A Tough Macroeconomic Balancing Act in Ukraine - GDP Estimate: GDP

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A Tough Macroeconomic Balancing Act in Ukraine - GDP Estimate: GDP

9 Aug 2022

At the beginning of March about a third of enterprises were partly out of operations, and at the end of May this number decreased to 14%1. [...] All of this most likely will bring government debt to about 100% of GDP by the end of the year. [...] With the speed like this ($4bn of withdraw- als/month + $1.7bn debt repayment in 2022 and $2.8bn in 2023 + $2-4bn payment for natural gas during the wintertime), there was a big danger for currency reserves to reduce to the dangerously low $12-15bn from the $23bn as of June 30 ($31bn as of Jan 1, 2022) With inflation is up to 21.5%, the National Bank had had enough of it and it devalued Hryvnia by. [...] Given the war realities, there is a rationale to differentiate Ukraine’s tax policy with lower taxes in the South-East of the country and the higher taxes in the West. [...] The National Bank should consider pegging the national currency to the Euro, not the US Dol- lar, which may keep appreciating due to the higher interest rates in the US 3.
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3
Published in
Slovakia