Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023 - Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan January 24, 9:30 pm ET

Gerasimov’s framing of the war and the General Staff’s ongoing revitalization efforts within the historical context of the Great Patriotic War is part of the continued campaign to counter the growing power and influence of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov, and their respective paramilitary structures, all of which threaten Gerasimov and the Russian Gen. [...] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that it that Russian forces continue to deploy many mobilized personnel to the frontline in Luhansk Oblast.17 A Russian milblogger claimed that battles are ongoing near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove), where Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting for control of the N-26 highway that leads to Svatove.18 A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian for. [...] DNR Head Denis Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces only control one road into Bakhmut after the Russian capture of Klishchiivka gave Russian forces operational control over the majority of the GLOCs in the Bakhmut area.33 A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are able to completely interdict Ukrainian forces on the M03 highway between Pidhorodne, Paraskoviivka, and Krasna Hora as of. [...] The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was previously badly degraded during offensive operations in the Vuhledar area in November 2022 and is unlikely to have the capacity to relaunch a new offensive on this sector of the front.48 8 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023 9 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023 Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russ. [...] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a reconnaissance mission for a future attempt to establish a bridgehead on the east bank of the Kherson River and warned that Ukrainian activity in the area will likely escalate in the near future.60 10 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023 11 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2023 Mobil.