Brazil: CCAG Country Report

In this report, CCAG argues that Brazil must accelerate its action on climate change. Home to some of the world’s most important, but ever-depleting, carbon sinks, CCAG argues that Brazil must do more to fight climate change now – having lost years of progress under former president Jair Bolsonaro. While Brazil’s energy mix is largely renewable, it is still the fourth highest emitter globally, and in recent years has diluted its climate commitments. This goes against the Paris Agreement principle of not backsliding – posing a huge risk to Brazil and to the wider world. But Brazil also has one of the worst socioeconomic divides in the world, and is under pressure to support its economy with emissions-intensive exports like beef and crude oil. Clearly, the recent re-election of President Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva (“Lula”) could not have come at a more important time. Lula has promised to stop deforestation and reduce emissions, while tackling poverty and growing the national economy. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to garner support and make good on these promises – but CCAG is hopeful that this marks a new and drastically different chapter for Brazil’s critical fight against climate change. Key findings Brazil has the fourth highest CO2 emissions in the world. It contributes around 5% of the world’s total emissions, behind the United States (20%), China (11%) and Russia (7%). The Climate Change Performance Index places Brazil at 33rd place, out of a total 61 nations. Meanwhile, The Climate Action Tracker gives Brazil a progress rating of “insufficient”. In 2020, emissions stood at 8.43tCO2eq per capita, an increase from 7.29tCO2eq per capitabetween 2010 and 2018 – the majority of which come from the deforestation of the Amazon biome. Amazon biome deforestation increased from 754,000 Ha (in 2018) to 1.3 million Ha in 2021 – with an average rate of 183,000 Ha per year. Brazil is the second largest grain exporter globally, owning a 19% share of the market. It is also the world’s largest exporter of soy, coffee, sugar, beef and chicken. In 2020, agriculture accounted for 46% of Brazil’s primary (AFOLU) emissions. Renewables have long been a part of Brazil’s energy mix, contributing 85% of all power generation in 2020 (63% of which was from hydropower). This means Brazil is well on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of ensuring 23% renewables make up its energy mix by 2030. In spite of its high proportion of renewables in the energy generation mix, oil is still the single biggest source in the total energy supply across Brazil, at 40%.