NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker - Expected Q1 Contraction Now Likely to be Shallow
10 March 2023
This growth in the first monthly figure of the new year was driven by the services sector, which saw a pick-up in education, transport and storage, and healthcare and social work activities in January relative to December. [...] Figure 3 illustrates a possible turning point in the decline of the key sectors of the UK economy: services and construction recorded increased output levels in February relative to January, alongside a further softening in the manufacturing sector’s contraction. [...] Figure 4 – UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Figure 5 shows a heat map of the data surprises across sectors in the monthly data, relative to last month’s GDP Tracker, highlighting the sectors where the surprises are large relative to the volatility of the output data. [...] Our first estimate of growth for any particular quarter starts in the first month of that quarter and is then updated each month until the first official release in the second month of the following quarter. [...] So, for example, our first estimate of growth in the first quarter of 2020 was published in January and then updated four times (in February, March, April and May) before the ONS published its first estimate for the first quarter of 2020 in May 2020.