Scenarios for the Eurozone final version 1000000

Pupng the current situa8on in a longer-term context, as well as in the context of developing scenarios of the euro, we can examine the quality of EMU governance and the expecta8ons of the direc8ons in which the EMU may develop. [...] The hopes and fears at the start of the crea8on of the eurozone, and even of the beginning of the European project, were partly poli8cal and differed from country to country. [...] More recent, with the resurgence of geopoli8cal tensions the ability of the US to impose sanc8ons on the use of the US dollar have prompted discussion whether the EU could achieve a similar status through the interna8onal use of the euro. [...] The share of the euro in foreign exchange flows is roughly the same as its share in global trade and becoming slightly less given the increase of the role of the Chinese renminbi moving from 4% in 2019 tot 7% of all trades in 2022.2 The role of the euro is now about one third of that of the dollar. [...] As a result, the impression exists that the introduc8on of the euro resulted in major loss of value for The Netherlands even though the cause had been the peg to the DM.