Motu Working Paper 22-07 - Persecution and Migrant Self- Selection: Evidence from the

To distinguish between the first and second explanations, we exploit the fact that emigration restrictions had largely been lifted by the beginning of the late refugee period, so that a comparison of the late refugee period to the economic migrant period will vary the reason for migration but hold constant the lack of emigration restrictions. [...] 3.2 Persecution in the Communist Bloc The nature of state persecution in the Communist Bloc varied immensely throughout the history of the Soviet Union. [...] The estimated migration probability is thus simply the number of immigrants living in Germany, the US, or Israel who were born between 1946 and 1986 in Poland and immigrated at age 25 or older, divided by the sum of that immigrant count and the number of Poles born in the same period who are residing in Poland as of the 2011 census. [...] A comparison of the early to the late refugee cohorts in Germany will isolate the effect of exit restrictions, while the same comparison in the US will estimate the combined effect of exit restrictions and immigration policy skill bias. [...] A comparison of the late refugee cohort to the economic migrant cohort in the US and Israel will isolate the effect of persecution, while the same comparison in Germany will estimate the combined effect of persecution and immigration policy skill bias.