Will the Eastern Flank be Battle Ready? Deterrence by 2030

Deterrence has long been a key mission for NATO members of the eastern flank, but the eastern flank has evolved considerably since the Cold War, not least because of the historical and economic diversity of the region that now characterises it. Whereas the eastern flank comprised frontline states like Turkey, Italy, West Germany and Denmark during the Cold War, it now stretches from Finland (with Sweden likely to join soon), the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, as well as Bulgaria and Romania. The purpose of this report is to identify the necessary eastern flank capabilities and readiness levels for a credible conventional deterrence by 2030. Credible conventional deterrence means maintaining and deploying military forces, such as ground troops, air power and naval assets, that can effectively counter and repel potential conventional attacks.