Advice o n NZ ETS unit limits and

However, in the context of this analysis, we use the emissions price in the model to inform us of the potential range of emissions prices that may be needed in the NZ ETS for Aotearoa to meet emissions budgets. [...] As Figure 2 shows, the 2030 emissions price required to drive this level of abatement is close to $150.6 Figure 2: Abatement-cost curve for the demonstration path, showing the emissions price required to achieve the target emissions level and the contributions from price-driven and non-price-driven abatement 5 This is close to the average emissions price over the period under the 3% discount rate. [...] The updates to the CPR also result in a faster electrification of the vehicle fleet, due to the higher uptake seen in 2021 and 2022 and higher oil prices throughout the 2020s. [...] Figure 11: Transport and non-transport energy emissions in the updated CPR compared with Ināia Tonu Nei 23 3.5 Comparison to the government’s latest greenhouse gas emissions projections The government published the latest official emissions projections in March 2022.22 These projections precede the latest national greenhouse gas inventory data and do not factor in the conversion of the Marsden Poi. [...] The ERP provides information on the government’s assessment of the emissions impact of the refinery conversion and the continued operation of the smelter.