Discussion Paper - No. 1890 December 2022 - New dawn fades: Trade, labour and

The use of the data in this work does not imply the endorsement of ONS or the Secure Data Service in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the data. [...] Section 2 details the context of the sterling depreciation that occurred as the unexpected Leave vote came about, first showing the scale and variation of the exchange rate movements in the period surrounding the referendum. [...] Conditional on information at the beginning of the window 𝒮 and the surprise of the Brexit referendum news, B, the state variable changes by Δ𝒮 = 𝐵 and the 8 Also reassuring for the approach we take is what happened to forward exchange rate at the times. [...] Looking at the pre-periods shows similar trends in intermediate import prices for the above and below median industries over the first two years, but also some divergence in the year just before the referendum.11 In the 2015/16 year, there is some indication of a pre-referendum increase in intermediate prices in the above median depreciation group of industries relative to the below median group. [...] Trade policy: Because of the exchange rate movements resulting from the news of the unravelling of the UK’s membership in the world’s deepest trade agreement, the findings relate to de-globalisation.