The consequences of Russia’s war on Ukraine for climate action, food supply and energy security

Russia’s war against Ukraine is, first and foremost, a calamity for the people of Ukraine. But both in Ukraine and around the world, the war is also increasing vulnerability to climate change, proliferating long-term security risks, complicating efforts on decarbonization and hindering multilateral climate action. Ukraine already faced challenges in mitigating and adapting to climate change. The invasion has made the country even more vulnerable, having damaged the environment, destroyed infrastructure and thrown large parts of the population into poverty and displacement. The effects of the war are being felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders, particularly in terms of food and energy security. Russia’s on–off blockade of Ukraine’s food exports via the Black Sea and the impact of sanctions on Russia’s own food and fertilizer exports have led to unprecedented volatility in global food prices. That volatility has increased hunger and deprivation. The war has also upended global energy politics. Energy independence, belatedly viewed as a precondition to political security, is now a renewed concern for policymakers. What this means for climate action is uncertain. In the short term, new carbon emissions risk being locked in, as worries over energy independence could encourage countries to delay or cancel action on reducing their carbon footprints. But Russia’s actions in fact provide a compelling argument for phasing down reliance on fossil fuels. Ultimately, the war may prove a milestone in an emerging period of ‘deglobalization’ that could make collective action on global challenges, including climate change, more difficult. But much depends on actions taken now. Post-war, with international help, Ukraine can rebuild its damaged infrastructure and leap forward to a more resilient, cleaner and low-emission future. Meanwhile, it is more important than ever to promote the necessary multilateral cooperation that can help the world to avert dangerous climate change and adapt to its effects.