Age and Heat: Examining the interlocking pressures of the next two decades

During the most acute heatwave event – from the 10th to the 25th July 2022 – the UK temperature threshold of 40°C was broken for the first time and excess deaths rose 10.4% above the 5-year average. [...] The following graphs show the average rise in UK daily maximum summer temperatures for the months June, July and August until the end of the century. [...] The 50th percentile indicates the median temperature projections of the probabilistic projections, representing a medium level of climate sensitivity according to the likely range. [...] By the end of the century, average summer temperatures increase significantly for RCP 4.5 and 6.0, relative to the summer of 2003. [...] Recommendations The consequences of the analysis in this paper are clear: temperature and the mitigation of heat will need to become a more core policy area within the government’s climate strategy in the years ahead.