T4-A1 Identifying and defining landscape dryness thresholds for fires EOI Project Briefing

Microsoft PowerPoint - T4-A1 Project Briefing - EOITD2 T4-A1 Identifying and defining landscape dryness thresholds for fires EOI Project Briefing Blythe McLennan Node Research Manager – Vic, Tas, WA Natural Hazards Research Australia Thomas Duff Senior Research Scientist Country Fire Authority © Natural Hazards Research Australia 2023 What we’ll cover today • Introductions • About NHRA and AFAC PS. [...] About the project Indicators of fire • There is a huge range of metrics available representing fire potential • Modelled values • Proxies • Remotely sensed values • Most of these have an undeniable physical link to fire behaviour • Most of these have some kind of demonstrated correlation with fire • How useful are they? Fit for Purpose?? Depends on what the purpose is…. [...] Many approaches are being applied KBDI outside their development range • Is used as a dryness indicator in multiple The is often more than one purpose Australian Models • Developed in California for dryness of Duff fuels E.g. [...] For McArthur's Forest Fire Danger: • Account keeping using 200mm water ‘bucket’ Suppressibility Forward Rates of Spread • Used in the calculation of Drought Factor Intensity • Fuel Availability? Probability of any fires Probability of uncontrollable fires Severity (Drought Factor) Fit for Purpose?? Scientific evidence is not necessarily fit for decisions For decision making: Toleranc.