TO WHAT EXTENT CAN URBANISATION MITIGATE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
5 October 2023
However, the impact on the working-age population over the next decade is unlikely to be severe, as the continuing decline in the share of children in the population will reduce the youth dependency ratio and, thus, will partially buffer the ageing effect. [...] To further quantify the role of urbanisation in augmenting the working-age population, we calculated the hypothetical change in the latter in the absence of urbanisation. [...] Note: The percentage numbers in brackets indicate the share of urban population in the total population for each age group at the end of the period. [...] Based on the discussion in section 3, we have already evaluated the impact of population ageing on the growth of the labour force (𝑁𝑁𝑖𝑖𝑡𝑡), so the focus now turns to the remaining two pivotal variables: the unemployment rate and labour productivity. [...] In other words, the positive productivity differential in the urban areas versus rural areas, and the fact that depopulation will only continue to happen in the rural areas as long as the urbanisation rate continues to increase in China, will lead to economic growth in China.