Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends?

This report examines how different types of immigration contribute to net migration to the UK in the long term, and what levels of net migration the UK might expect in coming years. Net migration has been unusually high in the past two years. High net migration figures have intensified debate over UK migration policy and the future outlook for migration. Politicians of both major parties have said that they think net migration is ‘too high’ and would like to see lower numbers. At the same time, ONS population projections assume that net migration will fall to 245,000 per year. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has applied the same assumption in its economic forecasts. Why is the gap between current and projected future net migration so large? Is it plausible that net migration will fall by as much as 60% over the next decade or so, to around the 245,000 that ONS assumes? This short report draws on analysis from the Migration Observatory and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics to examine this question.