FACT SHEET EUROPE NOVEMBER 2023 Analyzing the economic competitiveness of truck decarbonization pathways in Europe BACKGROUND Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) are among the largest sources of CO2 emissions in Europe, primarily due to the sector’s reliance on diesel vehicles and the nascency of regulatory efforts to curb these emissions. [...] DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS The study assesses the economic performance of seven decarbonization pathways: » Battery electric trucks powered by the European electricity grid and assumed to charge at private depots and public fast charging stations, depending on the truck application. [...] Given the expected reduction in the price of green hydrogen fuel in the 2030–2040 timeframe, fuel-cell trucks will reach TCO parity with diesel trucks by 2030 for medium- and light-duty urban trucks and by 2035 for trucks operating in the long haul. [...] » Conventional trucks powered by alternative low-GHG fuels such as HVO, e-diesel, and bio-CNG will struggle to match the economic performance of diesel trucks and will record a 15% to 45% higher TCO than their zero-emission counterparts by 2030. [...] Driven by the price of green hydrogen fuel and the higher fuel consumption relative to zero-emission trucks, hydrogen combustion powertrains are expected to be 25%–45% more expensive than battery- electric trucks by 2040.
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