Many environmental hazards produce health effects that take years to arise, but quasi-experimental studies typically measure outcomes and treatment over short time periods. We develop a new approach to overcome this challenge and use it to gauge the effect of exposure to air pollution on US life expectancy. Using changes in wind direction as an instrument for daily sulfur dioxide levels, we first characterize the short-run mortality effects of acute exposure during the time period 1972-1988. Exposure causes two distinct mortality patterns: a short-run mortality displacement effect, and a persistent accelerated aging effect. We then incorporate our estimates into a flexible health production model to quantify the lifelong effects of chronic air pollution exposure for a cohort born in 1972. Model calculations of the effect of chronic exposure on life expectancy are 7-8 times larger than the effect implied by simple extrapolation of our short-run empirical estimates. Ninety percent of the survival benefits accrue after the first fifty years of life, implying that most of the 1970 Clean Air Act's health benefits have yet to emerge for cohorts born after its passage.
Authors
- Acknowledgements and Disclosures
- Lexi Chen, Prakrati Thakur, and Xinhui Sun provided excellent research assistance. We are grateful to Josh Gottlieb, Peter Hull, Adriana Lleras-Muney, Nolan Miller, David Molitor, Nicole Riemer, Hannes Schwandt, Matthew West, Nikos Zirogiannis, and seminar participants at Arizona State University, Baltic Economic Association, Cornell University, DePaul University, Exeter University, GSSI School of Advanced Studies, Iowa State University, ITAM, IZA Workshop on Environment and Labor Markets, Jinan University, Johns Hopkins University, London School of Economics, MHEC, Nova SBE, Oxford University, Santa Clara University, Southern Economic Association meetings, Southern Illinois University, Stanford University, Tinbergen Institute, Toulouse School of Economics, University of Birmingham, UC Berkeley, University of Chicago, University of Duisburg-Essen, University of Geneva, UIC, University of Indiana, University of Mannheim, University of Navarra, University of Pennsylvania, and Wake Forest University for helpful feedback. This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health under Award Numbers R01AG053350 and R01AG073365. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w31858
- Published in
- United States of America
