Guide to the ASH Cost Benefit and Public Finance Model of Smoking, Version 2.1
9 November 2023
39 3 Introduction This document provides an overview of the structure and workings behind version 2.1 of the ASH Cost Benefit and Public Finance Model of Smoking (referred to in this document as the CBPF model) and also presents headline results for the cost of smoking to the UK economy and the UK public finances. [...] Section 7 presents estimates from the model for the cost of smoking to the UK economy and the public finances in 2023, and the gains from implementing policies recommended in the recent report by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health (2023). [...] The majority of the funding came from the British Heart Foundation and Cancer Research UK, with additional funding for some of the components of the Model provided by the Department of Health and Social Care. [...] The additional cost of informal care in the social sector is the largest single component of service costs at £10 billion for the UK, followed by the cost of additional unmet need for social care services at just around £6.4 billion, and the cost of smoking to the NHS at £2.2 billion. [...] Over a five year parliament between 2025 and 2029 the modelled policies are forecast to reduce the cost of smoking to the public finances in England by over £3.1 billion, and to reduce the cost of smoking to the economy and society in England by over £29 billion, summing the impacts across all five years of the parliament.